The Horn of Africa faces a historic drought

According to the United Nations website on the 8th, the Horn of Africa is facing its worst drought in decades. About 15 million people in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia are expected to be severely affected. The consequences of multiple rainy seasons of lack of rain could create a severe humanitarian crisis in a region already suffering the cumulative shock of conflict, climate change, desert locusts, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The International Organization for Migration has warned that an urgent and effective humanitarian response is essential to avoid a large-scale deterioration of the humanitarian situation across the region. United Nations Secretary-General Spokesman Djarric said that since the beginning of this year, the problem of food insecurity in Somalia has increased significantly. “The latest famine projections suggest that more than 6 million Somalis could face severe food insecurity between April and June this year.” He said the drought was “worsening” across Somalia and it’s the worst drought Somalia has experienced in 40 years.
The UN World Food Program has warned that in the first quarter of this year, some 13 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia will face severe famine, thousands of people will be displaced and millions of livestock will die. Some 5.5 million children in these three countries are expected to suffer from severe malnutrition this year.
The combination of multiple factors leads to limited means to cope with drought
Three consecutive seasons of insufficient rainfall in the Horn of Africa have left Somalia, southern and southeastern Ethiopia, and large swathes of northern and eastern Kenya facing unusually dry conditions. In Somalia, nearly 90 percent of the region is drought. In October and November last year, rainfall in parts of Somalia was 55% to 70% lower than the average for the past 40 years.
Some experts have analyzed that the drought in the Horn of Africa may be related to the La Niña phenomenon, which is accompanied by the rise in temperature in the Western Pacific. In recent years, as climate change has intensified, La Niña has also occurred more frequently, which also means that the region will continue to experience insufficient rainfall. The current meteorological data also support this statement.
In addition to the external cause of climate change, which is difficult to solve for a while, various internal factors such as security, development, and governance also limit the means of regional countries to deal with drought. Taking Somalia as an example, the water level of Somalia’s main river, the Juba River (also the second largest river in East Africa), has been declining, hitting a new low since 1957, and the river is almost dry. Nearby residents were forced to dig holes in the riverbed to find water sources. Crocodiles that originally inhabited the river died a lot due to the lack of food sources and shelter from the river, and the regional ecosystem was severely damaged.
The decrease in rainfall itself has caused the water volume of the Juba River to fall to the bottom of the valley, and those waterways used for flood discharge and artificial waterways used for irrigation have diverted a lot of the water. The existing irrigation facilities are inefficient in operation, and some facilities are basically in a state of abandonment, resulting in the inability of water resources. Affected by the ” al-Shabab” in Somalia, regional security of some areas is at stake. It is difficult for the government to effectively manage the relevant areas and help the affected people. It is also difficult for some international agencies and organizations to enter the relevant areas for assistance activities. Under the influence of the above-mentioned factors, the region is extremely weak to cope with a large-scale severe drought.
Drought will further deepen Horn of Africa development woes
The drought-induced reduction in water resources has the most direct impact on crop failures and livestock deaths. In some areas, grain production has dropped by 60 to 70 percent, exacerbating the rise in the price of staple foods and inflation. More than 1.4 million livestock died due to drought in the second half of last year. In drought-stricken areas, the price of water sold by private traders (water trucks and donkey carts) has risen by 300 percent. In addition, affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, wheat prices and international oil prices have risen rapidly, and East Africa has relied heavily on imports of wheat. It is even worse for the Horn of Africa region, which is already experiencing a food crisis. The rise in oil prices has also driven up regional prices, further driving up the cost of living for residents.
Due to lack of drinking water, crop failures, and poor survival of livestock, large numbers of people have been displaced and forced to relocate in search of suitable habitats. In Kenya and Somalia, pastoralists travel long distances to find water and pastures for their livestock, and there have been many conflicts between these people and indigenous groups over resources. Water scarcity also poses significant challenges for the region to deal with health problems. This historic drought will undoubtedly make the development dilemma of the Horn of Africa even more difficult.
Aid or Self Help?
Due to the delayed rainy season from March to May this year and the possibility of low rainfall, the Horn of Africa will enter the dry season again after June. Therefore, Paulson, Director of the Office of Emergency Operations and Resilience of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, said that: “There is now a short window until June this year for urgent action to prevent the drought from making the situation worse.” At present, the World Food Program is providing various forms of assistance such as food assistance, smallholder insurance, nutritional treatment, early warning services, and cash grants to disaster-stricken areas. China has also announced that it will provide a batch of emergency food assistance to Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Djibouti. to cope with the drought. Aid is important, but it is only a temporary success. The real solution to the development dilemma of the Horn of Africa is to rely on regional countries to enhance their hard power and break the interference of hotspot issues on regional development. China has also contributed its wisdom to the peaceful development of the Horn of Africa region.
By Shiyue Luo