The repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Lebanon
Many countries in both the Middle East and Africa fear that grain-laden ships from Russia and Ukraine will never make it to their ports because of the war. The “grain war” thus threatens the stability of already unstable and complicated areas, and this could cause a spiral of conflict, political instability, coups, and terrorism. There are in fact 30 million tons of grain stuck in Ukrainian ports by Russian warships, and if Russia does not decide to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian ports there could be dramatic repercussions. In addition, there are also to calculate the new harvests coming in a few weeks for an estimated 19.4 million tons of wheat. This week world wheat prices are back to the same levels as two months ago after Russian President Putin’s green light to use occupied ports for exports for Ukrainian crops as well. At the weekly close of the Chicago Board of trade where wheat on the futures market was quoted at $10.4 per bushel (27.2 kilograms) and with a 10 per cent reduction in three days, it was back to early April values. Also on the same wavelength were quotations for corn intended for animal feed, which fell to $7.27 per bushel due to a 6.4 per cent drop in the last days of the week. Crucial then is the departure of ships from Black Sea ports.
Countries such as Turkey, Somalia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Bangladesh, Yemen, Libya, Pakistan, and Lebanon purchase most of their grain from Russia and Ukraine; they are therefore heavily dependent on supplies from these two countries.
Lebanon among all the countries mentioned above is one of the most at risk of all with the Ukrainian wheat crisis. In fact, in 2020 it imported 65% of its wheat from Ukraine and 12% from Russia.
Presently, in fact, in the “cedar country,” concern is indeed rampant.
In fact, if the grain supplies were to arrive at their destination, it would be particularly complex to find suitable places to house the tons needed to hold the stocks for several months.
In fact, one of the main problems is related to the fact that happened two years ago, on August 4, 2020, the day of the “big bang.” Day on which there was the explosion at the port of Beirut, which devastated the silos that housed the grain reserves, which caused more than 200 deaths and caused damage calculated by the World Bank at $4 billion.
August 4, 2020, can be understood as the pivotal day for the fate of the country, already hard hit by a very serious economic crisis, the near-collapse of the banking system and very strong political instability.
As a matter of fact, the silos in which the tons of grain that had arrived by ship were stored were completely lost, and since that day no places have been rebuilt to store and conserve large quantities of grain. Since that day, finding cheap bread has become practically impossible, more than ever increased in the last month whose cost can reach 25,000 Lebanese Liras, when a few months ago it was no more than 1,000 Liras. The same thing for olive oil, formerly 1,000 Lebanese Liras now 15,000. Everything costs 10, 15, or 20 times the price it was before.
In a country dominated by corruption, what little grain there is has gone to the black market and no one can afford it anymore.
Since the port of Beirut became uninhabitable, all kinds of basic necessities began to be lacking, as almost all imports arrived at this destination and then were sorted throughout the country.
Not only grain then, but also fuel and gas.
It should also be pointed out that the central bank has less and less foreign currency and paying foreign suppliers is becoming really impossible. For this reason, some of the largest power plants have also been shut down forcing the population to have electricity rationed for two hours a day.
In addition, in the latest UN report, it was calculated that the unemployment rate has reached over 50% and 1 million people (out of 6,825) live in food insecurity.
The Lebanon issue is therefore really dangerous and worrisome.
Bujar Hoxha, the regional director of NGO Care International, also explained in an interview that the problem for Lebanon is not only buy, stock and store grain from Russia or Ukraine, but the problem also comes from neighbouring countries.
In fact, some quantities of essential goods for bread and flour used to come from North African countries, more specifically Algeria and Turkey.
The governments of these two countries, given the contiguous situation of the Ukrainian-Russian war, have decided to change their export policy, that is, to keep the foodstuffs for themselves.
The situation, in general, is at an end, and the conditions of Lebanese politics and the ruling class seem even more dramatic and complex when immediate and pragmatic solutions would be needed.
Without these, the upcoming popular reactions may not be so “peaceful” and political. It is seemingly good to remember that it was only in 1990 that a bloody civil war that began in 1975 ended in Lebanon.
By Michele Brunori
