The El Niño phenomenon
Photo: Unsplash
The planet is bracing for another El Niño, a phenomenon that occurs when warmer surface waters in the Pacific Ocean disrupt the world’s climate. In Brazil, the decrease in precipitation in the north and northeast raises an alarm, especially for the Amazon, which requires a more intense commitment from the federal government in the field of prevention. The natural event recurs at irregular intervals, and some studies indicate that global warming may make it more frequent and intense. What is certain is that, when it becomes necessary, as from now on, the average temperature of the atmosphere will increase. The return of El Niño is unsettling because, although it hasn’t occurred in the past six years, the period has produced six of the nine warmest years on record since 1880 — all of which occurred after 2014. In 2017 and 2018, the pattern prevailed La Niña, which cools the globe, but not to such an extent as to neutralise the long-term trend. Even before its appearance was confirmed, the Earth was already under fire. In Canada, literally, with wildfires that suffocated New York City with smoke and engulfed an area equivalent to the state of Rio Grande do Norte.
In other oceans, anomalies are also being recorded, indicating that more threatening climate change may be underway. The North Atlantic is 1°C warmer than the 1981–2011 average. The sea ice around Antarctica has retreated to record levels. The international community fails to reach a consensus on updating the objectives of the Paris Agreement (2015). The next Summit (COP28) takes place in five months in Dubai, in the oil epicentre of carbon emissions; not even an agenda for the upcoming meeting could be finalised at the ongoing preparatory meeting in Bonn (Germany). The burning of coal, oil, and natural gas would need to fall by 6% a year to meet the 1.5°C limit set in Paris, but there is no sign of that. Brazil can make a relevant contribution by reducing deforestation, the source of most of its climate pollution. The change within the federal government certainly changed the conditions for this, after the dismantling of the system of prevention and struggle under Jair Bolsonaro (PL). Ibama (Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources; n. trans.) has been strengthened, but it is not certain that it will be able to cope with the explosive composition of the drought caused by El Niño and the agro-zootechnical sector on fire. In 1998, a year of El Niño, 11,000 km² of vegetation burned in the state of Roraima alone – an area equal to what was deforested in the Legal Amazon (a region that occupies approximately half of the Brazilian territory; it includes 9 states and has an area greater than that of the Amazon biome; n. trans.) in 2021–2022. Avoiding a disaster of this size will be a challenge for Minister Marina Silva.
By Cora Sulleyman
