The Evolving Dynamics of Russian-Turkish Relations in the Erdogan Era - thediplomaticaffairs.com

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Geneva, Switzerland

Op-Ed World July 12, 2023

The Evolving Dynamics of Russian-Turkish Relations in the Erdogan Era

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The relationship between Russia and Turkey has witnessed significant transformations in recent years, particularly during the Erdogan era. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey has pursued a foreign policy that has both aligned with and diverged from Moscow’s interests. Historically, Russia and Turkey have had a complex relationship marked by periods of cooperation and tension. However, the relationship faced a severe setback in 2015 when Turkey shot down a Russian military aircraft near the Syrian border. This incident led to a sharp deterioration in relations and resulted in economic sanctions imposed by Russia. Nevertheless, both countries recognised the need to restore ties, and Erdogan’s visit to Moscow in 2016 marked the beginning of a significant rapprochement. One of the key areas of convergence between Russia and Turkey has been their involvement in the Syrian conflict. While Russia supports the Assad regime,Turkey has backed various rebel groups. Despite their differing objectives, both countries have collaborated to establish de-escalation zones, facilitate humanitarian aid, and engage in joint military operations against terrorist organizations. This cooperation has been instrumental in reducing violence and creating conditions for a political settlement.

Energy has emerged as another important dimension of Russian-Turkish relations. The construction of the Turk Stream gas pipeline, completed in 2020, has significantly enhanced energy cooperation between the two countries. This pipeline enables Russian natural gas to flow directly to Turkey and further into Europe, thereby diversifying energy supplies and strengthening Turkey’s position as an energy hub. Moreover, Russia’s state-owned Rosatom is constructing Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, highlighting the growing collaboration in the energy sector. Despite their growing cooperation, Russia and Turkey also face significant geopolitical challenges that have the potential to strain their relationship. One such challenge is the ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russia has historically had close ties with Armenia while Turkey has supported Azerbaijan. The differing positions of Moscow and Ankara in this conflict have raised concerns about a potential clash of interests. Turkey’s relationship with Russia has sometimes strained its ties with NATO and the Western world. Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defence system, despite objections from NATO allies, has been a significant point of contention. This move has prompted the United States to impose sanctions and exclude Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet programme. Managing the delicate balance between maintaining strong ties with Russia while remaining a member of NATO poses a challenge for Turkey’s foreign policy. The relationship between Russia and Turkey under the Erdogan era has witnessed a complex interplay of cooperation and tension. While both countries have managed to find common ground on issues like Syria and energy cooperation, geopolitical challenges and diverging interests continue to test the strength of their partnership. As Turkey navigates its role between Russia and NATO, striking a delicate balance will be crucial for maintaining stability in the region and advancing its national interests. The future of Russian-Turkish relations will undoubtedly be shaped by the evolving dynamics of the geopolitical landscape.

By Roberto Casseli

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