On the economic front, the EU has been exploring ways to diminish its vulnerabilities, particularly regarding supply chains and technological dependencies. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the need for self-sufficiency, as disruptions laid bare the risks of overreliance on global markets. A Trump presidency, with its protectionist leanings, could further incentivize European efforts to cultivate internal markets and invest in strategic sectors such as digital infrastructure, green technology, and pharmaceuticals. Politically, De Croo’s call to action suggests that the EU must be prepared to navigate a world where US commitments to international agreements and alliances could again become uncertain. This would necessitate a reevaluation of the EU’s foreign policy, with a possible shift towards more independent positions and an emphasis on strengthening relationships with other global powers. Defense, however, remains one of the most challenging areas for EU integration. While initiatives are in place, significant hurdles such as varying national interests, budgetary constraints, and differing strategic cultures must be overcome to achieve the level of cohesion and capability that true strategic autonomy requires. A Trump administration’s ambivalence towards NATO could serve as a catalyst for deeper European defense integration, but this path is fraught with complexity. Prime Minister Alexander De Croo’s speech to the European Parliament reflects a growing sentiment within the EU that it must be prepared for all eventualities in the international arena. The potential re-emergence of “America First” under Donald Trump is seen not as a threat to be feared, but as a chance for the European Union to mature and assert itself as a powerful, independent entity on the global stage. De Croo’s advocacy for a “stronger, stronger, more sovereign and more resilient” Europe is a rallying cry for self-improvement and unity in the face of external challenges. While the prospect of increased EU autonomy may be met with encouragement within some European circles, it also raises questions about the future of transatlantic relations. Historically, the US and Europe have shared deep economic ties, common values, and strategic interests. A move towards European sovereignty suggests a redefinition of this relationship, necessitating careful negotiation to maintain cooperation while allowing the EU to pursue its own strategic interests. Moreover, De Croo’s vision requires a concerted effort from EU member states, which have historically shown varying degrees of commitment to the concept of European autonomy. It demands a delicate balance between national sovereignty and collective European action, and the success of such a vision hinges on the willingness of member states to cede certain powers to EU institutions for the greater good.

By Paul Bumman