Zangezur Corridor is a kind of Belt & Road in the South Caucasus area.   

Recently, former Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan announced his candidacy for the upcoming election with his new party, the “Wings of Unity.” What chance does he have? Remains to be seen.

Prime Minister Pashinyan is still supported by the West, even though moderate Tatoyan, a graduate of the Massachusetts University in the USA, is holding heated talks with former President Levon Petrosian to form a coalition government for the future.

The political opposition seems weak at the moment. Strong is the Armenian Apostolic Church, in open conflict with the pro-Western prime minister. 

State propaganda, closely related to the progressive one, announces hybrid war of Russia and interference in the act of government. It obviously does it is not seen evidence of external interference.

The official narrative is that Russia wants to impose a traitor on Yerevan, without noticing that the Russian soft-power acts differently than they say.

Over the past 30 years, the EU has been proclaimed the future guarantee offer of enlargement in the Southern Caucasus. Nothing happened.

Armenians are the oldest people in the world attested to by the Bible. There is a huge wound in the collective memory due to the Turkish genocide at the beginning of the last century. Two-thirds of the population in Turkey died from deportations, starvation and massacres. The Syrian desert is full of tombs. The cemeteries of one of the greatest mass murders in human history are no longer known. 

A brief foray into the recent past shows a heightened state of tension in a society riddled with corruption, criminal gangs and poverty. Almost 300,000 citizens, according to the pauperity index, almost 10% of the population, live with only 1.5 dollars a day.

In the summer, there were massive protests in Yerevan against the terms of a ceasefire agreement with Azerbaijan.

In June, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan launched a direct political attack against Karekin, the leader of the Armenian Apostolic Church. At first the dispute seemed one of ideas, eventually it turned into bloody street conflicts and arrests from the clergy.

The conflict stems from the Velvet Revolution of 2018 (supported by Soros networks), which brought Pashinyan to power along with his domestic and international reformist agenda. Immediately after the revolution, Pashinyan targeted the clergy, whom he targeted as a fearsome adversary, a supporter of the old regime. 

Here, the power and influence of Nikol Pashinian have diminished massively, following the failure of Western-type reforms, imposing an agenda unsuitable for the Armenian people.

Moreover, Russia imposed a series of export sanctions, which led to an increase in the deficit of Armenia. It is known that the Armenian nations were the most influential networks of traders in Moscow.

Karekin and the Church appeared before the people as the only forces capable of opposing the authoritarian pro-Western regime in Yerevan, in fact a caricature of a democratic establishment.

After the defeat of Armenia in the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Karekin and other clergymen took part in the protests demanding Pashinian’s resignation and accusing him of national betrayal.

Pasinian collapsed in the polls less than nine months before next year’s summer elections.

It is not known whether the former advocate of the people will succeed in an alliance with the Apostolic Church, one with ancient religious foundations, with an extremely principled and unwilling clergy to compromise.

The Armenian government and the Armenian Apostolic Church accuse each other of violating the constitutional separation between church and state. The prime minister is trying to establish parallel structures of the historic Church.

Such a direct and unprecedented attack on the clergy with great influence over the population is a turning point in Armenian politics. The unreliable prime minister might lose everything if the West let him out of hand.

Many mainstream media analysts believe there is a risk of Armenia falling into the arms of neighbouring, few Georgia.

The collective West is turning a blind eye to Pashinyan’s abuses of power. US wants Zangezur Corridor to ride armored in Iran coast.

European states continue to support the prime minister, despite abuses and lack of democracy. He is being asked for the presumption of innocence.

So the US and Russia can influence the results of next year’s votes if they are interested in maintaining some influence in the South Caucasus.

State institutions will have to navigate democratic failures and external pressures. Armenia remains a state with one of the most financially powerful diasporas in the world.

Western democracies can sleep peacefully. Azerbaijani Aliyev’s gives them the peace of coordination through representatives. The direct presence of EU member states is too risky.

Post scriptum: Two decades ago, European bureaucrats wanted to engage me in the process of EU enlargement in the southern Caucasus, following the publication of a journalistic investigation. The future in the past was so far, so I declined the offer. 

By Marius Ghilezan