When we look at international law, it theoretically allows for the extraterritorial application of domestic law, but only in cases of defending national security, a case that clearly does not apply here, since Maduro has never threatened the US, nor has he even set foot on American soil in 20 years, since 2006, when he was detained for several hours at the Miami airport, alongside then-President Hugo Chávez, upon returning from the UN general meeting.

Why did this attack take place? It is clearly not about drugs, with most statistics showing that Venezuela would not be the main country targeted by such an action, but Mexico or Colombia, and even Trump has admitted several times that this is not the purpose of his actions in Venezuela, but Venezuela’s oil resources. Venezuela has the largest oil resources in the world—it is true, a more difficult oil to extract, but still the largest reserves. And more importantly, in my opinion, it has a very poorly developed extraction and production infrastructure as a result of the sanctions imposed on it. Thus, the real money will be earned not from the resources themselves, but from the development of this infrastructure, with profits and consequences of immense importance for private or state companies.

Why now? Yesterday, a meeting took place between Nicolás Maduro and China’s special envoy for Latin America, Qiu Xiaoqi, in the very Miraflores presidential palace from which Maduro was kidnapped a few hours later. There, they not only reaffirmed their friendship and alliance but also renegotiated and discussed the more than 700 strategic partnerships between Caracas and Beijing, including military cooperation and oil production infrastructure. That was actually the problem: that all these lucrative contracts were going to Chinese companies.

Which brings us to the next question: who are the main actors involved? At first glance, it seems clear that Trump is the main actor, but I don’t believe that. First, Trump’s reaction came three hours after the first reports from Venezuela about this attack emerged. Second, Trump appeared visibly exhausted and tired in his speech today. But most importantly, third, Trump has absolutely nothing to gain from such an action.

The only way he could have approved such an attack would have been with the understanding and cooperation of his new clandestine allies, namely Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. I have explained the understanding between the three in other editorials. However, they clearly would not have betrayed Maduro, especially considering the meeting between Maduro and the Chinese representative that evening, but also the negative reactions that the Russians and the Chinese had to this attack. Trump would never have jeopardized this new alliance, which is meant to save the US, for an uncoordinated attack.

The maximum possible would have been a situation similar to that in Syria last year: Maduro would have been extracted first by the Russians or the Chinese and taken somewhere to live in exile, in peace and quiet—in no case in the USA, where we already see that his imprisonment is a certainty. All the statements of the American representatives imply that he will receive a life sentence. All these things make me assume that Trump, in fact, did not know about this action, as I assumed in the case of the attack on Iran this summer, but was faced with a fait accompli, the real actors being the American deep state together with the CIA, who want to protect the interests of big Western finance, that is, the large private companies that had their eyes on the contracts in Venezuela.

In addition, this action also comes with another benefit for the deep state: Trump is already in an unstable situation in his own country, with his popularity declining, and such an illegal action will only make things worse in a very important electoral year in the US—a year in which it is possible and even likely that the Republicans will lose their majority in the House of Representatives. This was confirmed to me by the fact that, this afternoon, the front-page article of the New York Times, a longtime agent of this deep state, was titled “Trump’s Attack on Venezuela is illegal and Unwise,” harshly criticizing Trump. Thus, I believe that this action was one undertaken without the knowledge of Trump, Putin, or Xi Jinping, but of course with the betrayal of some members of the Maduro administration or, most likely, the Venezuelan military.

The main losers are, obviously, Trump and Maduro, but also the Europeans, who were completely confused by the events that took place and did not properly condemn these flagrant illegalities, although the Europeans are the ones who boasted that they respect the international law that they established alongside the US. Moreover, although they try to distance themselves from this action—as did the British Prime Minister, who, without being asked, said that he had nothing to do with this attack—they were supporters of this type of illegal action to help the Americans.

We only have to think about the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony, a prize meant to bring peace, but which was given to Corina Machado, the very one who publicly called for such illegal and violent action in Venezuela. The Russians clearly condemned these actions, demanding that Maduro and his wife be released, and the harshest response from the EU—and the only one that can be considered harsh—came just 3 minutes after the Russians’ reaction, from the French, who said that these actions clearly violate international law. I will leave you to draw the obvious conclusion regarding Russian-French relations.

From Trump’s speech today, we understand that the prospects are bleak. Trump seemed overwhelmed by the situation. All the American representatives continued to endlessly praise the military action they took, despite their pallor, saying that it was extremely precise. I do not believe that Maduro was taken by force, but as a result of negotiations, the subsequent humiliation, which can be seen in the photos published by Donald Trump, was necessary so that Trump could pretend that he wanted this action.

Trump has said that he will take over Venezuela to ensure that it brings democracy. Similar to his peace plans in Ukraine and Gaza, Venezuela will likely be another peace process on his list, and if he is not allowed to take power for his and the US’s benefit, then he is ready to attack a second time, with even harsher consequences. It is worth noting that we still do not know how many civilians died in last night’s attacks; we only know for sure that many died. Maduro’s vice president and longtime friend, Delcy Rodríguez, has taken control for the time being, and I do not think she will surrender too easily, since she had a call with Lavrov today, and Lavrov stated that Russia will support her.

But even if he does, it doesn’t matter, because Venezuela will be overwhelmed by violence anyway. I remind you that although there is significant opposition in the country, a very large number of Venezuelans support Maduro—I would say clearly a majority. But in addition to this, the cartels and guerrilla groups in Venezuela, but also in neighboring countries—notably Colombia, a country where the most dangerous and well-armed groups in the world are located—support Maduro and oppose the will of American billionaires. The violence will not end quickly with democracy as Trump wants, but a stabilization of Venezuela in the event of the total removal of Maduro’s government would take several years at least; let’s remember the situation in Iraq.

We have yet to see any concrete action beyond condemnation from the Russians or the Chinese, and I don’t think such action could happen without them further embarrassing Trump or, worse, exposing his lack of control over the US military. So expect violence and confusion. Trump is threatening in every direction—Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela—and is under pressure from all sides. Unfortunately, 2026 will not be a year of stability but a year of chaos.

By Daria Gusa

www.solidnews.ro