Africa is growing beyond expectations, but poverty is not decreasing.

The growth of the African continent has always been a topic of great interest among economic and financial analysts. The continent’s potential has been the subject of numerous analyses, including those of myself, who have consistently highlighted its obvious potential, particularly in natural resources. However, the critical issues in many areas have also been the subject of global debate, which is the main reason why certain economic data deserves further investigation.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth demonstrates its resilience to regional shocks and is poised to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026. The uncertainties are dictated by cyclical and structural vulnerabilities, from concerns over the Middle Eastern scenario to an old unfinished business in African expansion: the gap between macroeconomic growth and the actual conditions of the population, a fragility exacerbated by factors such as inflation, debt burdens, and the uncertain prospects of artificial intelligence.

This is the outlook outlined in the Africa Economic Update, a biennial World Bank report on the state of play and outlook for the economies of the sub-Saharan region. The latest edition’s assessment oscillates between positive notes on the stability of the continent’s economies and warning signs looming over their expansion.

The resilience of sub-Saharan economies is reflected in the growth forecast for 2026, fueled by factors such as declining inflation, consolidated public budgets, robust domestic demand, and a global appetite for critical minerals triggered by the energy transition and investments in artificial intelligence.

The shadows arise from two different fronts. In the immediate future, the continent’s scenario is plagued by the aftermath of the Middle East crisis, uncertainties regarding trade dynamics, the fallout from Donald Trump’s axe on aid, and two constant emergencies: climate shocks and the security threats pervading the continent.

Looking ahead, Africa’s economic expansion remains hampered by its inability to impact and impact the actual conditions of the population. Growth is failing to translate into a significant reduction in poverty or sufficient job creation, despite GDP per capita growth from 1.6% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026. This is too little to alleviate poverty or stimulate employment growth to keep pace with the demographic growth of a continent that will be home to 330 million people under 24 by 2030.

The most significant threats concern price growth and debt. The report states that inflation has accelerated again amid geopolitical tensions and will delay the normalization of monetary policy. The Middle East crisis has inflamed fuel, food, and fertilizer prices, with median inflation projected to jump from 3.7% last year to 5.5% in 2026. As for public finances, the progress made in the region is offset by a debt burden that is crushing sub-Saharan governments’ margins for investment and public spending. The median debt-to-GDP ratio has stabilized at 57%, but high interest rates and high debt service obligations (the sum of interest and debt repayments) are squeezing budgets, hindering public investment, and increasing refinancing risks.

Expectations about the impact of AI are already implicit in the report’s subtitle, Building AI-Readiness: building preparedness for artificial intelligence and its beneficial and negative impacts on the region. Today, sub-Saharan Africa is beginning to capitalize on the effects of AI technologies in its economic fabric, but adoption remains uneven and concentrated in a few hubs. This imbalance is evident in the gap between the most promising scenarios for a “full activation” of AI and the current state of the technology.

The report states that the integration of artificial intelligence could potentially add $1 trillion to Africa’s GDP by 2035, create 35 to 40 million digital jobs, and generate $150 billion in annual revenue. In fact, the current level of readiness will allow for an increase of 0.2% to 0.4% of GDP over the course of a decade: a minimal fraction, and, in any case, dependent on a more rapid adoption of the necessary infrastructure. The qualitative leap will depend on electrification, connectivity, the development of market-appropriate skills, infrastructure, and institutions.

In short, GDP growth on the African continent is not automatically a sign of well-being for the population. If growth is not distributed equally, but is concentrated in the hands of a few wealthy people, growth does not have a positive value but simply contributes to widening the gap between wealthy families and the poor ones and, probably, to increase conflicts between people.

By Domenico Greco