PAX AMERICANA is the term used by geopoliticians to describe the period after the Second World War, more precisely the period immediately after August 1945 when, after launching the two atomic bombs on Japan, the USA proclaimed itself as the number 1 military power on the planet and conferred itself the status of the most important ally among the victors in the war, a status contested even today by Russia, which believes that Stalin’s army had the greatest contribution to the victory against Hitler’s Germany. Based on this status, reinforced by the takeover of all the military naval bases of the former British Empire immediately after the war, a status supplemented by the Americans through huge investments in development (they had a budget little affected by the war effort), including the Marshall Plan for the reconstruction of Western Europe, the Americans began their long period of world domination, in which they had been a competitor for about 4 decades only to the USSR, a period known as the Cold War. We can say, however, that this Pax Americana lasted over 75 years, during which there were no wars between the great powers, so we benefited, especially in the Euro-Atlantic space, from many years of peace in which countries and their citizens could develop.

There are no doubts today that the period of America’s dominance over the world is over. At this moment, we only question how exactly the transition to the New World Order will be made and then deduce how power will be divided between the great geopolitical actors. We know today that the USA, aware that it was left only with the status of the most important military power, quickly consuming its potential of economic, cultural, and civilizational influence, tried a last attack on its Russian and Chinese competitors by starting the Ukrainian war, respectively, by conflict in Taiwan. American strategists have calculated that Russia will not be able to withstand for long the military effort in Ukraine, doubled by the trade sanctions imposed on Russians by the Collective West, and that in this way Putin and his people will be forced to wave the white flag of peace, the Americans, thus gaining the advantage of a Russia grounded by the war effort. The calculations of the Americans were wrong, however, and the excellent strategy of the Russians, supported by the geo-economic relations consolidated by them in the last decades in the Eurasian space and, respectively, in the Middle East, gave Russia the opportunity to emerge even stronger after two years of confrontations, „the Ukrainian trap” prepared for them by the Americans acting with a quasi-lethal boomerang effect even on the western world still led by the USA. For its part, China, sensing the weakness of the American plans, has additionally strengthened its strategic relationship with Russia in the last two years, did not directly support it militarily, but greatly increased bilateral trade and joint Russian-Chinese investments, significantly and decisively accelerating the expansion of BRICS and thus giving a terrible geo-economic checkmate to the US, which cannot offer something similar to its Western partners precisely because of the lack of economic and financial resources dedicated to investment and development. This is the situation we are in today, and other descriptions are part of the desperate propaganda effort of the Collective West. Analyzing the substrate of official communications on the Moscow-Beijing line, as well as their international movements from Africa, the Middle East, and South America, I deduced the essence of the Russian-Chinese counter-strategy, aimed at accelerating the decay process of the so-called „American Empire.”. Of course, in the foreground is the reset of the economic-financial relationship on the planet, an operation summarized by the term de-dollarization, which will soon become visible through the decisions that will be implemented at the BRICS+ level. Apart from that, and above that, we will have to deal with the multiplication of wars on the globe in areas where America will be forced to defend its authority, hegemony, and investments, thus consuming its internal resources, which will also be weakened by the geoeconomic game set up by BRICS+. Already, the conflict in the Middle East, much amplified after the events in Lebanon and Iran of the last 48 hours, appears as part of this scenario. The American push against President Vucic’s regime may soon bring a new conflict in the Balkans with the epicenter in Serbia, and in Taiwan, military conflicts will surely emerge after this month’s elections. There are clear signals that Africa will heat up in conflict in its turn; the Russians and the Chinese have divided their areas of dominance there, and from this spring on, they will act decisively to drive the Western forces off the ground. South America will not miss the chance to be freed from the domination of Uncle Sam, and from Cuba, where the Chinese have started the construction of military bases, to Venezuela, which wants to use its great oil potential for economic development, and Argentina, which will not resist under the adventurist regime of the new pro-American president, we only see outbreaks of future conflicts where the Americans will mobilize their forces to militarily block these trends. Basically, it seems clear to me that the Russians and Chinese are targeting and encouraging the emergence of these new wars, where they will not participate directly except in extreme cases, but which wars will be dedicated to the goal of disempowering the US. Most of these conflicts will be triggered even during 2024, which is a tumultuous election year in America. The Moscow-Beijing axis is also benefiting from the fact that there is someone of Biden’s level in the White House, seconded by someone else of Kamala Harris’s level. A desperate solution to eliminate Biden leaves the Americans with Harris on the buttons, which gives the Putin-Xi couple an exceptional window of opportunity for at least a year. The logic by which we can judge the future in the medium term is therefore one of continuous, tough, and sophisticated war and negotiation. The next period will be successfully passed only by states prepared for the scenario described today, which have a knowledgeable and well-connected international leadership, states that will thus be able to connect to successful trends. The Western world, a component of the American Empire, I fear will experience a grey period of accelerated decay in which the wisest will deduce the value of the old Romanian saying, „What you don’t like, don’t do to others”!

By Cozmin Gusa