Diplomatic battle between Taipei and Beijing for influence in Latin America
Map of Latin America
Beijing and Taipei are waging a real diplomatic war in Latin America: Honduras’ decision to establish official relations with the People’s Republic of China is a blow not only to Taipei, but also to Washington, in a Central America that was once its area of influence. The next battle will be fought in Paraguay, where the opposition presidential candidate in the elections at the end of April, Efrain Alegre, has announced that, if he wins the elections, he intends to reevaluate his country’s relations with Taiwan. Today, only 13 states continue to have relations with the nationalist island. In Latin America and the Caribbean: Guatemala, Belize, Paraguay, Haiti, the Federation of Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, and the Grenadines; in the rest of the world: the Holy See, Eswatini (Swaziland) in Africa; and, in the Pacific, Nauru and the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu. The president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, is traveling to Guatemala and Belize this week to encourage them not to follow the example of Honduras, but also the Republic of Costa Rica in 2017, El Salvador in 2018 and the Republic of Nicaragua in 2021. we are facing a geopolitical recomposition of the world” which “is no longer unipolar, but multipolar”, with a communist China which is “one of the imperial poles firmly establishing itself in the region, not only in Central America, but in all of Latin America”, explains Zoila Madrid, former teacher of the National University of Honduras.
“Honduras plays a role not only economically, but also geopolitically, because the US has always relied on Honduras from a geopolitical and military point of view, because seven American military bases are located there,” she emphasizes. By virtue of the “one China” principle, Beijing does not authorize any country to have diplomatic relations with mainland China and the nationalist island at the same time. “It is very difficult for Paraguay to decide to establish diplomatic relations with China, even if it cannot be ignored that the political pressure is very strong” and that “the ground is prepared” for Beijing, according to former Paraguayan foreign minister Eladio Loizaga. This is also the opinion of Paraguayan analyst Hector Cristaldo. “I don’t think that, in case of victory, the opposition will be able to change the diplomatic relationship with Taiwan,” he says. Paraguay is the last country in South America that maintains relations with Taiwan because the region “was abandoned for many years by our brother from the north”, the USA, remarks the former head of Paraguayan diplomacy. However, Latin America has been a stake between Beijing and Taipei since 1949, when the Communists seized power on the mainland while the Nationalists retreated to the island of Taiwan. The latter, which currently has 23 million inhabitants, is considered a rebel province by Beijing, which does not stop declaring that it will be recovered, by force if necessary. If it were a chess game, it would seem that Taiwan is about to lose the game… However, according to specialist Sung Wen-ti, in reality the nationalist island has the advantage of “international visibility” today. “It is understandable that Taiwan feels a little sad” after the decision of Honduras, but the island “gives priority” to its ties with the “leading countries” in the world, such as the USA, Japan, Australia and European states, this specialist in the issue of Taiwan emphasizes from the Australian National University. Also, he points out, “Taiwan is playing an increasingly important role in this global strategic rivalry between the US and China.” “Taiwan is until today the most solid liberal democracy in the Sinophone world” and “has a symbolic importance”, adds Sung Wen-ti. Last but not least, the island now has even more “international visibility”, being mentioned in joint statements of the G7 and other multilateral forums, he concludes.
By Paul Bumman
