His return to Dhaka in December 2025 was nothing short of a political spectacle. Thousands of supporters thronged the streets to welcome him, and his arrival immediately reshaped the electoral landscape. Rahman’s ability to galvanize the BNP’s base, unite fractious opposition factions, and project himself as a credible leader after years of exile proved decisive.

Now, as he positions himself to become Bangladesh’s next prime minister, the weight of expectation — and the magnitude of the challenges ahead — could hardly be greater.

Friday’s election did not take place in a vacuum. It was, in many ways, the culmination of months of upheaval that fundamentally reshaped Bangladesh’s political terrain.

The collapse of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government last year sent shockwaves through the country. What began as widespread student-led protests against controversial job quota policies escalated into a broader movement against authoritarian governance, eventually forcing Hasina — who had dominated Bangladeshi politics for over 15 years — to flee the country. An interim caretaker government stepped in, tasked with the unenviable job of steering the nation toward free and fair elections amid economic turmoil and social unrest.

The prolonged instability took a devastating toll. Investor confidence plummeted. Foreign currency reserves dwindled. And perhaps most critically, Bangladesh’s vital garment sector — the backbone of the economy, employing millions of workers and accounting for more than 80% of export earnings — suffered severe disruptions as factories shuttered, supply chains fractured, and international buyers began quietly diversifying their sourcing to competitors like Vietnam and Cambodia.

What made Friday’s vote particularly significant was not just its outcome but its character. International observers and analysts widely described it as Bangladesh’s first genuinely competitive election in years — a stark contrast to the 2014 and 2024 polls, both of which were marred by opposition boycotts, allegations of rigging, and voter suppression.

This time, multiple parties contested freely. Voter turnout was robust, with long lines forming at polling stations across the country from early morning. The Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party, and its allies mounted a strong campaign of their own, securing approximately 61 to 70 seats depending on the count — a significant showing that ensures they will be a formidable voice in the new parliament.

The presence of a credible opposition within the legislature, ironically now occupied by forces aligned with the formerly dominant Awami League and smaller parties, could foster the kind of democratic accountability that has long been absent from Bangladeshi politics.

It is impossible to understand Friday’s result without reckoning with the extraordinary Zia family legacy. Khaleda Zia, Tarique’s mother, served as prime minister twice — from 1991 to 1996 and from 2001 to 2006 — and her rivalry with Sheikh Hasina defined an era of Bangladeshi politics often described as a “battle of the begums.” Khaleda’s imprisonment in 2018 on corruption charges, which the BNP called politically motivated, made her a martyr figure for party loyalists and kept the flame of opposition alive during the darkest years of BNP suppression.

Now elderly and in fragile health, Khaleda Zia did not contest the election herself. But her son’s victory is, in a very real sense, her vindication — a full-circle moment for a political dynasty that many had written off.

The international community has reacted cautiously. Western governments, including the United States and the United Kingdom, issued statements congratulating the Bangladeshi people on a peaceful election while urging the incoming government to uphold human rights, press freedom, and democratic governance. The European Union, Bangladesh’s largest export market, emphasized the importance of labor rights reforms in the garment sector.

China, meanwhile, signaled interest in deepening economic engagement, particularly around infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative — a potential lifeline for a cash-strapped government, but one that comes with its own geopolitical strings.

As the final votes are tallied and the formal transition of power begins, Bangladesh finds itself at a crossroads that is both exhilarating and precarious. The BNP’s landslide is a mandate for change, but mandates are fragile things. The history of Bangladeshi politics is littered with promising new beginnings that curdled into authoritarianism, corruption, and dysfunction.

Tarique Rahman has an opportunity that few political leaders receive: the chance to reshape a nation’s trajectory at a moment when the old order has collapsed and the public is hungry for something better. Whether he seizes that opportunity with wisdom, humility, and genuine democratic conviction — or succumbs to the familiar pathologies of power — will determine not just his legacy, but the fate of 170 million people who went to the polls on Friday believing that this time, their vote truly mattered.

By Sara Colin