The need for a leader who can effectively address counter-terrorism is a testament to the ongoing threats that member countries, especially Turkey, face from regional instability and terrorist organizations. Turkey’s experiences with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which it considers a terrorist group, and the spillover effects of conflicts in neighboring Syria and Iraq have made security and counter-terrorism top priorities for Ankara. Erdogan’s statement to Rutte reflects a desire for a NATO leader who will not only understand but actively prioritize these concerns.

Furthermore, President Erdogan’s reference to the “sensitivities of non-European Union member allies” is particularly telling. It suggests a push for greater inclusivity and a tailored approach to the distinct needs of NATO members who are not part of the EU bloc. This could be seen as a call for more equitable treatment and consideration of each member’s security environment, rather than a one-size-fits-all policy often perceived to be dominated by European perspectives.

The crux of Erdogan’s message to Rutte is that Turkey’s support for a candidate will be conditional on the prospective NATO chief’s ability to align with Ankara’s expectations and requirements. This position carries weight considering Turkey’s strategic importance to NATO, particularly in light of its control over the Bosporus strait and proximity to the Middle East and the Black Sea region. As tensions with Russia remain high and the need for a concerted approach to regional security becomes more pressing, the role of Turkey within the alliance is magnified.

Turkey’s leverage in the selection process also arises from its history of asserting its interests within NATO decisively. For instance, Ankara previously blocked defense plans for Poland and the Baltic states until it received assurances for its own security concerns. Such moves demonstrate Turkey’s willingness to use its vote to ensure its voice is heard and its conditions are met.

As the alliance looks towards selecting a new leader, the candidate who eventually assumes the role must navigate a landscape marked by diverse interests and expectations. Erdogan’s conversation with Rutte implies the necessity for a secretary-general who not only brings a comprehensive understanding of NATO’s collective defense obligations but also possesses the diplomatic finesse to balance the individual and sometimes divergent needs of the member states. The new chief will be expected to strengthen NATO’s cohesion, address the multifaceted challenges of counter-terrorism and regional instability, and foster an environment where every member, regardless of EU affiliation, feels their security needs are being adequately represented and addressed.

The dialogue between President Erdogan and Prime Minister Rutte highlights the critical considerations that will influence Ankara’s backing for NATO’s next leader. Turkey’s expectations are clear: a commitment to counter-terrorism, sensitivity to the unique positions of non-EU allies, and an overall service to the needs and interests of the alliance. The upcoming leadership transition will not only reveal NATO’s direction in the face of evolving security threats but will also test the alliance’s capacity to accommodate the complex tapestry of interests that defines its unity and strength.

By Cora Sulleyman