The Ukraine Peace Summit Struggle for Relevance

Last weekend saw the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, which unsurprisingly, yielded no tangible results since only one of the conflicting parties, Ukraine, was represented and Russia was not invited. Out of the 160 invited countries and organizations, only 92 participated, and half of them, mostly the non-Western half, were not represented by their heads of state as intended, but by ministers or lower-level diplomats. Even Australia, Ukraine’s ally, did not send its head of state or even its foreign minister, but rather the Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme. Zelensky traveled all over the world pleading with various world leaders to attend, including in China, country which refused to send any sort of representation because of Russia’s absence at the summit. Ukraine further worsened its relations with China when, instead of accepting the refusal, Zelensky repeatedly and publicly stated that Beijing was trying to sabotage the summit, accusations which China denied. China would have been the most important participant due to its influence among Global South countries and its declared interest in being the main mediator of the conflict, proposing, alongside Brazil, solutions approved by Russia but rejected by Ukraine. Thus, China’s refusal to participate sends a clear message about the summit’s utility in the conflict’s resolution. Also important is Saudi Arabia’s attitude following last week’s meeting between Zelensky and Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who refused to attend despite Zelensky’s insistent pleas and instead delegated his foreign minister to the summit. Saudi Arabia is seen by most analysts as the most likely mediator between Russia and Ukraine in the next phase of the peace process, so MBS’ refusal shows that this conference does not aim for real peace but is just a PR event for Ukraine.

Other notable absences included the International Atomic Energy Agency, Pakistan, Cuba, Brazil, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, Central Asian countries, and more than half of the ASEAN members. The most shocking absence, however, was that of Joe Biden, who had attended the G7 summit in Italy the previous day and could have easily reached Switzerland. Zelensky publicly begged Biden repeatedly to attend, saying his absence would represent a “standing ovation” to Putin. Instead, the Americans sent Vice President Kamala Harris, who left the summit after just a few hours, being replaced by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

After praising the summit’s effectiveness, Sullivan made some hostile statements towards China and other countries not present at the summit: “I think we need to ask countries like China: ‘Do you believe what Putin has proposed is an acceptable basis for peace?’ Because if their answer is ‘yes,’ then they are straying from the UN Charter.” Interestingly, the Americans are the ones accusing China of not respecting international rules when they themselves violated them by imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese EV imports, as well as threatened to impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court over its decision regarding Bibi Netanyahu’s war crimes.

Other Interesting Statements

Macron declared that no country attending the conference is at war with Russia, even though he had just approved attacks on Russian territory with French weapons and had previously sent military instructors to Ukraine. Dutch Prime Minister Rutte stated that “the fact that Putin came up with this silly peace proposal shows that he is panicking. It’s good news for NATO’s military effort”, while Giorgia Meloni confidently declared that the countries present at the conference would “force Russia to surrender.” The most ridiculous moment of the meeting was when Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau emotionally declared that Russia must win the war, even though he intended to say the opposite. Perhaps the most interesting event that took place in Switzerland, which was not discussed, was an interview with Serbian President Vučić, who stated that Serbia is preparing for a world war which is expected to start in three or four months and that efforts have been made to control national food reserves to ensure the Serbian population’s survival. Given that Vučić is an informed and controlled leader, his statement should scare us all.

Absence of Russia

The main problem with the summit was, ultimately, the lack of a clear purpose: what result could peace negotiations have as long as the only country you need to negotiate with, namely Russia, was not invited! Among those present who subscribed to the summit’s futility were representatives from India, Saudi Arabia, Ghana, Mexico, and Turkey. Viktor Orbán, former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, and former Pentagon analyst Michael Maloof were absent but also criticized the summit for being unilateral, saying that this imbalance would not lead to peace but, on the contrary, could prolong the war.

Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis supported the decision not to invite Russia, stating that Switzerland assumed responsibility after discussing the issue with many countries. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, the other organizer, explained that Russia’s absence was due to the principle of “parallel involvement”: conditions are discussed with other countries before being presented to Moscow, as with the 2022 negotiations on the Black Sea grain initiative. Kuleba emphasized that Ukraine’s objective remains the implementation of all points in the so-called peace formula and that Ukraine will not make any territorial compromises.

Russia’s Peace Plan

Even though Russia was not invited, disapproving of a peace conference in this format and considering Zelensky illegitimate since the expiration of his presidential term, Putin presented a list of conditions for peace based on “current realities and previous agreements” a day before the conference began, saying he was ready to start negotiations. Russia’s conditions are:

Complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye regions.

Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO.

Neutral, non-aligned, and non-nuclear status for Ukraine.

Lifting all Western sanctions against Russia.

Recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions as Russian territories.

Several analysts described the peace offer as a “lifeline for Europe” and a “golden opportunity,” and Putin stated that if this offer was not accepted, he would come back with a less “generous” one. Ukraine rejected it within minutes, labeling Putin’s proposal as insincere, and Zelensky even comparing Putin to Hitler. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also quickly dismissed Putin’s conditions, stating that they would mean “achieving Russia’s military objectives” and that this peace proposal is not actually “peaceful,” Putin having “no right” to impose peace conditions on Ukraine. He added that NATO would continue to provide military support to Ukraine and that the organization currently has 500,000 personnel in all branches of the armed forces in a state of high readiness in case of war expansion. Stoltenberg supported the proposal to restrict the movements of Russian diplomats in Europe, whom he called “intelligence officers.” Regarding this restriction, Romania is the first country to actually implement it: as host of the annual Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) meeting, which will take place in two weeks, Romania informed the Russian government that it refuses to issue visas for the Russian delegation, even though Russia is one of the founding OSCE states and has participated in the other meetings in the past two years. A rather risky decision given that all NATO countries, and also Serbia, have been warning Romania about the war’s expansion and an imminent Russian attack.

Summit Peace Formula

So, what is Ukraine’s peace formula? Although the summit’s stated purpose was discussing Zelensky’s ten-point peace plan, which was announced at the end of 2022, the official communique of the summit was much reduced. Of the delegations present, only 78 signed the document, surprisingly including Hungary, Serbia, and Turkey, countries friendly with Russia. Saudi Arabia, Armenia, Thailand, India, Mexico, South Africa, Brazil, Libya, Colombia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates did not sign the document, while Iraq and Jordan withdrew their signatures without explanation a few hours after the event ended.

Ukraine’s demands are as follows:

All prisoners of war must be released through an exchange.

All civilians (allegedly) illegally detained, as well as Ukrainian children (allegedly) illegally displaced, must be returned to Ukraine.

The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant must operate under the control of Ukraine and the International Atomic Energy Agency (which refused the summit invitation).

Ukraine must have access to the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports.

Food security cannot be used as a weapon.

Ukrainian agricultural products must be safely and freely delivered to third countries.

All countries must reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty within internationally recognized borders.

Although Russia currently holds the obvious military advantage, the current peace proposal is much harsher than the one from 2022 (the ten-point plan only asked for the return of 20,000 civilians). What reason would the Russians have to accept these seemingly absurd conditions? Some analysts theorize that Zelensky is making every effort possible to prolong the conflict out of fear that his political career will end once the conflict is resolved. Since Russia does not consider Zelensky’s mandate legitimate and refuses any negotiation, delaying a serious peace agreement makes sense in this scenario. Especially considering that the US also needs an obedient leader like Zelensky in Ukraine to secure the reconstruction contracts for Ukraine, but also to justify the hefty arms contracts. Zelensky is already publicly discussing organizing a second summit in the same format and location, where Putin will be invited, although the International Criminal Court has an arrest warrant on him. Whether it’s a trick to arrest Putin or not, such a conference is unlikely given Putin’s refusal and Zelensky’s condition regarding the return of all territories occupied by Russia.

Unfortunately, this peace summit seems to have been a waste of time and resources for all countries involved, achieving only the underscoring of the fact that the US & Co still do not want peace, but want to prolong the conflict in Ukraine as much as possible, a fact highlighted by China’s and Biden’s absence from the event. If its purpose was to demonstrate international unity for Ukraine’s cause, then the summit was not just useless, but also failed, as it demonstrated the opposite, consolidating the status quo of “the West vs. the Rest” through the absences of important non-Western countries and the refusal of many of those present to endorse Ukraine’s conditions. If the fate of the Ukrainians is sealed, we can only hope that Vučić is wrong and that the rest of Europe will not be involved in a future extended conflict as well.

By Daria Gușă