Geneva, Switzerland

Politics World November 1, 2024

US election: what then?

Photo by Eric Fougere/Corbis via Getty Images

The next US administration will have a huge impact on the global economy; and everyone is busy analyzing the differences between the Republican and Democratic programs, and their global consequences. In fact, the expected impact of these elections is not really what we think: if major differences can be expected in immigration and foreign policy, the economic, financial and environmental impact of Trump and Harris programs, They are apparently so different, but in reality very close. First, if they applied their program, both would have a negative impact on US and thus global growth. The Democrats, because they would raise corporate taxes substantially; the Republicans, because they would impose considerable tariff barriers, which will not be without reprisal. Both will also be inflationary: the Republicans, due to the expulsion of underpaid illegal workers and the repercussions of tariffs on the prices of imported products; the Democrats, because of increased public spending and the purchasing power of the working classes. Both are expected to have slower economic growth and higher inflation. More importantly, whoever runs America for the next four years will face a much deeper dilemma: can Americans continue to live, even more than other humans, at the expense of future generations?

First, in terms of climate: the US is and will remain, along with China, the largest emitter of greenhouse gases on the planet. And the programs of both parties are not likely to change the nature of things. Even the Democrats, who would do more than the Republicans to support the green economy, have just resigned themselves to not banning oil shale. Neither party is proposing a radical fight against the artificial nature of soil, which significantly aggravates the consequences of storms and floods on cities. Cities will be swept away by increasingly deadly storms. Others will be drowned in the waves. This climate debt will have to be settled, in one way or another, which will result in the permanent impoverishment of the living today to give a chance to future generations.

Then, financially: the US public debt has reached a level never before in the history of the country, even more so after the Second World War. If, in the 1950s, this debt could have been eliminated by a tremendous growth, it is inconceivable that the US can again reach, over time, the necessary rate of growth. They will therefore only continue to borrow, obtaining each time from the Congress the lifting of the debt ceiling (as they will have to do in January 2025, even before the inauguration of the next president). This financial debt will have to be settled in one way or another (through inflation or war, or taxes) which will result in the permanent impoverishment of the living today, to give a chance to future generations.

That is the real tragedy of this election campaign. No one told the Americans that the real choice was, for them, between today’s waste that will soon destroy the country and a quick transition to the economy of life, which could save future generations. Nobody told them either that no matter who the next president is, there will be more and more debt to pay.

This dilemma is not only American: the Europeans and the rest of the world are facing the same challenges and are not more lucid. The first ones who will become, and pay their debts, will invent to achieve a new model of development, which will make them masters of the next civilization.

By Jacques Attali

Source: https://www.attali.com/en/geopolitics/us-election-what-then/

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