Geopolitical threats unite the EU and Japan: the strategic imperative for partnership

The need to establish a Strategic Dialogue at the foreign ministerial level and further develop the security and defense partnership between Europe and Japan arises precisely from the complex geopolitical framework affecting the two regions. In his speech, Josep Borrell stated: “We live in a very dangerous world. We live in a world of growing rivalries, climate accidents, and threats of war. And there is only one antidote to this challenging  world, which is partnerships among friends.” In this context, the powerful words of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (October 2024–incumbent) resonate, warning that “today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia.” Both messages emphasize the importance of cooperation in reducing confrontations, especially in light of the current situations in Europe and East Asia.

Europe has mainly to address the tensions between Belgrade and Pristina and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which recently saw the involvement of North Korean troops, underlining Kim Jong-un’s support for Vladimir Putin. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is thus a clear example of how the security of Europe and East Asia are closely interrelated and interdependent.

If the European scenario is shaped by significant concerns, the East Asian one certainly does not seem better. Japan and Europe have intensified their cooperation to tackle the growing nuclear threat from North Korea, exacerbated by Pyongyang’s launch of the Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile on 31 October 2024, just one day before the first EU-Japan Strategic Dialogue. The importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific, which upholds sovereignty and territorial integrity, clashes with escalating tensions in the East and South China Seas. This is complemented by the urgent need to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, which represents a tipping point for Japan’s security and international stability as a whole.

The motivation behind the signing of the EU-Japan Security and Defence Partnership thus lies in a perception of threat shared by Japan and Europe and a sense of urgency in dealing with the growing strategic alignment between China, Russia, and North Korea.

Strategic areas of EU-Japan collaboration to strengthen security and defense

This partnership, described by Borell as “a historic and very timely step,” supports security and defense cooperation aimed at reinforcing programs such as the EU-funded Critical Maritime Routes in the Indo-Pacific (CRIMARIO) and Enhancing Security Cooperation in and with Asia (ESIWA).

This new pact strengthened the relationship between Europe and Japan and encompassed several areas, first and foremost, maritime security. Promoting a regional maritime security architecture and freedom of navigation, as opposed to any attempt to change the status quo, is a joint European and Japanese prerogative. In practical terms, this translates into a joint naval partnership between the European Union Naval Force (EUNAVFOR) and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), one of the three main branches of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF).

Efforts to contribute to peace and stability also occur in space security, cyber issues, and foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI). Joint actions to support the rules-based international order and multilateralism aim to address additional global challenges such as non-proliferation, disarmament, conventional arms, small arms, and light weapons.

Towards flexible blocs: EU-Japan-South Korea in response to the Russia-China-North Korea axis

The emerging political framework reveals a growing multipolar strategic polarization, as evidenced by the strengthening of ties between Brussels and Tokyo through the EU-Japan Security and Defence Partnership. The term multipolar is essential in this context because the reference is not to a simple binary division but to an increasingly fragmented world characterized by a complex interplay of forces that make the international order an even more unpredictable system.

This unpredictability could result in a possible response from Europe, Japan, and South Korea, forming a strategic counterweight bloc to the coalition between Russia, China, and North Korea. Precisely on 4 November 2024, in Seoul, the EU and the Republic of Korea (RoK) held their first Strategic Dialogue, during which the EU High Representative, Josep Borrell, and the Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea, Cho Tae-yul (January 2024–incumbent), announced the EU-RoK Security and Defence Partnership. In this context, the EU-Japan-South Korea bloc could serve as a deterrent and demonstrate a coordinated approach to curbing the influence of the Beijing-Moscow-Pyongyang axis.

Indeed, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has accelerated the formation of significant geopolitical alignments. Chinese and Russian joint military activities and North Korea’s rapprochement with Russia have reinforced Japan and South Korea’s support for Ukraine. This indicates a growing commitment to shared democratic principles as the foundation for common security, strengthening the alliance of democratic nations and adding an additional layer of geopolitical resistance.

This dynamic seems to mark a considerable evolution towards an à la carte geopolitical structure where coalitions are built flexibly and strategically in response to the challenges of a world becoming increasingly complex. Such flexibility, however, means that this hypothetical bloc does not operate as a rigid alliance like NATO but as a responsive partnership in which common values and specific security concerns drive cooperation. Although recognizing the pivotal role of the United States in security matters, this EU-Japan-South Korea framework allows these partners to shape regional stability in a way that respects their distinct priorities and relationships.

By Azzurra Bassetti