On the other hand, expectations for a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are rising. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates in November 2024 to stimulate the economy, mounting inflationary pressures in 2025 have led markets to bet on a rate increase. A BNZ Markets report indicates that the New Zealand dollar to U.S. dollar exchange rate has been on an upward trajectory since 2023, with a forecast range of 0.60-0.65 for 2025. NAG Markets technical analysis shows that both the MACD and RSI indicators support bullish momentum, with a target of 0.6145 after breaking through 0.58166.

Additionally, the weakness of the US dollar is also one of the key reasons. The Federal Reserve released a “dovish” signal in early May, and the market generally anticipated an interest rate cut within the year, causing the US dollar index to drop to a yearly low of 101.5. This led to a widening interest rate differential between the two countries, attracting capital inflows into the New Zealand market. Furthermore, the US dollar index has been weakening continuously since early 2025, providing room for appreciation for commodity currencies such as the New Zealand dollar. ANZ research indicates that the New Zealand dollar to US dollar exchange rate entered an upward trajectory after March 2025, aligning with the rebound in global commodity prices.

The surge in the exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar has triggered multiple impacts both domestically and internationally.

In the domestic market of New Zealand, the rising exchange rate presents dual opportunities for exporters and the tourism industry. Although Fonterra, New Zealand’s dairy giant, admits that currency appreciation has eroded export profits, it also emphasizes that with the international pricing power of high-quality products, it can still maintain market share. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s tourism sector is experiencing a peak season due to lower consumption costs for foreign tourists. Data from Tourism New Zealand shows that international visitor arrivals in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 23% year-on-year, with Chinese tourists contributing over 30% of the total.

However, stakeholders on the other side are bearing immense pressure. Chinese enterprises importing timber from New Zealand have been forced to adjust their supply chains due to rising costs, with some shifting to the Australian market to alleviate cost pressures. The international student community in New Zealand is also facing difficulties due to exchange rate fluctuations. A Chinese student at the University of Auckland stated: “Exchanging RMB for NZ dollars now costs nearly 10,000 yuan more per year in living expenses.”

For Europe, the impact of the New Zealand exchange rate appreciation is also twofold. On the positive side, demand for high-value-added agricultural exports (such as kiwifruit and wine) to Europe remains stable, and exchange rate fluctuations have limited impact on premium products. The appreciation of the New Zealand dollar can reduce import costs and alleviate inflationary pressures in European supply chains. Additionally, the EU-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (effective in 2022) provides tariff concessions, which can partially offset the exchange rate effects. Furthermore, growing European demand for New Zealand’s organic food and sustainable agricultural products may drive industry upgrades amid exchange rate fluctuations.

In terms of negative impacts, the rising export costs of bulk commodities such as dairy products and meat may weaken Europe’s market share. Meanwhile, increased exchange rate volatility could heighten the difficulty of corporate exchange rate risk management. The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may also exacerbate global exchange rate fluctuations, thereby amplifying export risks for Europe.

The surge in the New Zealand dollar exchange rate is both a microcosm of global macroeconomic shifts and a manifestation of the vulnerability of commodity-dependent economies. Pierre Dupont, an economist, commented: “Amid the contest between the US dollar and the renminbi, exchange rate fluctuations in small, open economies will be amplified. Policymakers must strike a balance between competitiveness and stability.” For Europe, this volatility is forcing businesses to reassess supply chain resilience and cost structures; for New Zealand, the challenge lies in balancing exchange rate benefits with export competitiveness, testing the wisdom of policymakers. In the coming months, market participants need to prepare for a new wave of volatility.

By Yuli Zhang