Economic forecasts are influenced by various risk factors, including geopolitical tensions and trade policies. A potential increase in tariffs could negatively impact global growth and increase inflation in the United States. Furthermore, the ECB has initiated a cycle of monetary easing, but analysts warn that there may be upside inflation risks, which could lead to an interest rate hike in 2026.

In summary, the economic forecast for 2026 points to moderate growth and declining inflation, but with significant geopolitical and trade risks that could impact these projections.

To make the most reliable forecast possible, it is necessary to analyze the main areas influencing the real economy.

INDUSTRIAL FIELD

Global industrial activity, as noted in the Oxford Economics report, proved resilient in 2025, despite high tariffs and uncertainty-related headwinds. Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 appears solid, but we expect industrial performance to remain uneven across regions and sectors.

Investments in artificial intelligence will drive concentrated growth. Continued robust investment in artificial intelligence will ensure that high-tech manufacturing remains by far the fastest-growing sector in global industry. Downstream, the deployment of data centers will continue to drive electricity demand, while manufacturing in the telecommunications, data processing, and hosting sectors will maintain its strength.

US industrial growth will extend through 2026. Reducing political uncertainty, solid profit margins, lower interest rates, and investment incentives should pave the way for a broader acceleration in US manufacturing growth throughout the year.

China’s industrial giant will continue to thrive, driven by exports. Chinese industry is increasingly dependent on exports, including high-tech, automotive, and electrical products. China’s industrial power will come at the expense of other countries. While some areas of emerging Asia, particularly Vietnam, are expected to benefit from China’s growing industrial activity, other areas will struggle. Europe, particularly Germany, is also in the crosshairs.

Not all of Europe is in crisis, and the weakest links should begin to recover towards the end of 2026.

COMMERCIAL FIELD

International trade is expected to remain stable until 2026. However, towards the end of 2026, trade will find itself trapped in a Mexican stalemate between tariffs and artificial intelligence. AI-driven investments will keep high-tech manufacturing booming, increasing demand for semiconductors, processors, and raw materials underlying advanced technologies. Asia will reap the bulk of the gains. Outside of artificial intelligence, US tariffs will impact demand and trade.

Transshipments will give way to actual production shifts, reshaping China’s role in global value chains. Companies are currently diverting Chinese goods to economies with lower tariffs.

COMMODITY FIELD

The oil market will remain in a clear and persistent surplus, and supply will continue to grow through 2026.

Meanwhile, China and major emerging markets are set to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles, and the University of Oxford predicts that six out of ten cars sold in China in 2026 will be electric.

Investor-driven swings will determine gold’s uptrend. Gold will continue to rise, but the path will likely be uneven.

Government foreign policy will remain a determining factor for non-energy commodity prices. US imports of steel, aluminum, lumber, and secondary copper will remain subject to high tariffs. Government policies will be the determining factor for the prices of rare earth and battery metals.

China will continue to drive global commodity demand in 2026, despite its weaker economic growth.

Overall, we expect global growth of 3.1% in 2026. Once again, Europe will see weak growth, albeit stronger than in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund expecting growth of 0.9% for Germany, +0.8% for Italy, +1% for France, and a solid +1.8% for Spain.

The United States is expected to grow by 2% in 2026, Japan will grow by 0.5%, and China expects solid growth of +4.2% for 2026.

The best performers are once again Asian emerging markets such as India and ASEAN countries.

By Domenico Greco