What Role Does Japan Play on the World Diplomatic Stage?
The death of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated on 8 July 2022 while giving a speech in Nara, Japan, sparked a wave of memorials from heads of state around the world. Abe’s death has brought the spotlight back to Japan. Indeed, the world’s third largest economy has been unusually quiet on the world political stage for the last two years. What is the foreign policy of Japan, with its strong economic power and cultural influence? And in what way will Japan be present on the world political stage in the post-epidemic era? The reasons for Japan’s quiet performance on the world diplomatic stage in the last two years are multi-layered. On the one hand, since Shinzo Abe resigned as president of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party in September 2020 for his own health reasons, Japan’s prime minister has already undergone two successive transitions. After Shinzo Abe’s resignation, Japan’s prime ministership was taken over by Yoshihide Suga, but a year later, on 4 October 2021, the entire Suga cabinet resigned at a meeting. Since then, Japan’s Prime Minister has been succeeded by Fumio Kishida. Both Prime Ministers have now been in office for only about a year. Under Japan’s political structure, incoming prime ministers tend to focus on domestic policy making, with foreign policy often taking priority over domestic policy and party support. On the other hand, in the past two years, the main issues in world politics have gradually changed from economic development to reducing regional conflicts and slowing down the economic downturn, where the United States, European countries and China have a greater say than Japan.
Japan’s weaker voice on issues of world peace and security stems from its status as a defeated country in World War II. During the Second World War, Japan was one of the three major fascist countries. When it declared its defeat and surrender in 1945, it accepted a provision in the Potsdam Proclamation that stated that it would “completely disarm the Japanese army”. In accordance with this provision, the Japanese army was disbanded. Under Japan’s peace constitution, Japan is theoretically unable to have an army and has no right of belligerency against other countries, and all of its weapons and equipment can only be used for self-defenses. So, although the total strength of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces reaches more than 247,000 by 2021, Japan’s military expenditure in fiscal 2021 ranks fifth in the world at US$49.5 billion, or about 1% of its GDP. However, Japan’s overall military policy can only be adjusted to the military trends of the US and other NATO countries, and is more passive.
After the end of the Cold War, in order to achieve the goal of enhancing Japan’s strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region and in the internationalized world as a whole, on the one hand, Japan continued to strengthen the Japan-US alliance system and continued to focus its security policy strategically on maintaining its alliance with the US, in order to gain the support of the US and its NATO allies and thus achieve the goal of political power. On the other hand, Japan has continued to strive for diplomatic independence, pursuing a leading role in international affairs, and has taken steps to break through the limitations of the post-war peace constitution by sending troops overseas, reorganizing the administrative structure of the defense ministry, and continuously strengthening its military capabilities. However, up until now, Japan’s influence on security issues has been very limited, and it has been unable to exert a dominant influence on international issues.
Although Japan’s military influence is weak, its economic influence cannot be underestimated. Take the automotive industry for example, Japan is the world’s leading producer of automobiles and has a complete automotive manufacturing industry chain. From initial design and development, to the subsequent production of components, to the assembly and sale of complete vehicles, Japan has a global supply chain. Japan actively participates in economic cooperation organizations and as a member of the G20 and G7, Japan actively undertakes the responsibilities of its member countries. the 14th summit of the G20 leaders was held in Osaka, Japan, from 27 to 29 June 2019. Japan is also actively involved in other forms of economic cooperation and exerts influence through its economic power, such as joining the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP) and participating in China’s Belt and Road construction.
In terms of regional economic relations, unlike the EU, where neighbor countries have a strong tie, Japan is not interested in advancing the agenda of regional integration in East Asia. Japan maintains relatively close economic ties with the other major Asian economies, China, South Korea and the region of Singapore. But these ties are mainly the result of globalization rather than Japan’s economic policies towards these countries. At least for the time being, the economies of Japan and China and Korea are not complementary, but rather competitive. China has a complete industrial chain, and Japan and China compete strongly in China’s domestic market and in manufacturing exports. At the same time, Japan and South Korea are also in more obvious competition in the semiconductor, automotive and other industrial sectors. Apart from economic factors, political factors and historical issues are also important factors that prevent Japan from pursuing regional economic integration. Japan’s refusal to acknowledge its acts of aggression and its worship of the Yasukuni Shrine have to a certain extent hindered the further development of its relations with China and South Korea.
Today, against the backdrop of the global economic downside risks, nationalism is beginning to rise on a global scale. The unevenness of development brought about by the process of globalization is also stimulating the emergence of nationalist forces. Within Japan, calls for nationalist elections are growing, from local councils to regional assemblies. At the same time, as global conflicts escalate, the Japanese people are increasingly calling for increased national security. In the future, Japan may further amend the section of the constitution on the Self-Defense Forces to increase its military influence, and this is not the first time Japan has tried to do so. After Abe came to power for the second time in 2012, he consolidated the constitutional amendments into four articles, which were written into the LDP pact. The one related to the SDF was to amend Article 9 of the constitution to explicitly include the SDF in the constitution. At the same time, East Asian regional economic integration may also become a future option for Japan against the backdrop of China’s and South Korea’s further economic power and the diminishing share of Japan’s economy in China, Japan and South Korea.
By JIN Kaiwei
