September 22: A pivotal development occurred as the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel announced their intention to sign a significant agreement. The agreement primarily focuses on the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It includes provisions for Saudi Arabia to exchange oil for civilian nuclear technology from the United States. This agreement carries implications of securing low-cost oil for the U.S., nuclear assistance for Saudi Arabia from the U.S. and Israel, and international recognition for Israel from Arab countries. Despite Israel’s historical animosities with Arab nations, the tide began to turn around in 2020, with Israel signing normalization agreements with neighboring Arab states. The final piece in this puzzle is gaining recognition from Saudi Arabia, a move that could potentially recreate the economic miracles of the post-1990s Middle East peace era. October 6: On the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Hamas launched an attack on Tel Aviv, Israel’s capital. October 7: Iran’s UN spokesperson ambiguously expressed support for Hamas’s actions. While Iran did not openly endorse the operation, its cryptic stance led to speculations that Iran might be a covert supporter of Hamas. The suspicion that Iran plays a pivotal role in this conflict seems increasingly credible. Retracing the timeline, in June of this year, reports from the “Tehran Times” indicated that Iran was making overtures to Saudi Arabia by offering nuclear assistance for the construction of nuclear power plants. Notably, in March of the same year, Saudi Arabia and Iran reestablished diplomatic ties with the help of China’s mediation. The transfer of nuclear technology emerges as a key element in this reconciliation process. However, in less than half a year, Saudi Arabia realigned itself with the United States, crossing Iran’s red lines in the process. The increasing proximity between Israel and Saudi Arabia also poses a challenge to Iran. Firstly, Iran and Israel compete for regional nuclear dominance. Secondly, the growing closeness of these two major Middle Eastern economies could further isolate Iran. Consequently, Iran has ample motivation to disrupt Israel’s peaceful relations with other nations. In fact, since the 1980s, Iran ceased being a U.S. proxy in the Middle East and severed ties with the United States. Instead, it has supported regional forces that could counterbalance Saudi Arabia and Israel, leading to conflicts like the two Israel-Lebanon wars. In response to Iran’s declaration of support for Hamas, Saudi Arabia announced the termination of trilateral negotiations with the United States and Israel on October 9. This outcome validates earlier speculations and marks a partial setback for the U.S.’s three-party agreement plan. This signifies that the United States’ plan to curb domestic inflation and disrupt Russia’s economic lifeline through lower oil prices has been thwarted (after all, oil exports are one of Russia’s primary sources of income). Consequently, it becomes evident that the recent Israel-Palestine conflict is deeply rooted in the power struggles between major nations. The Israel-Palestine conflict is far from a simple territorial dispute; it is a manifestation of intricate geopolitical maneuvering, involving the United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran, and even Russia. These nations are vying for influence and control in the Middle East, and this conflict unveils the hidden layers of their broader geopolitical game, impacting the destinies of nations and the lives of millions. In addition, this conflict is likely to have several impacts on the European Union, such as the rise in international oil prices leading to increased energy costs, inflation, and economic growth slowdown. The EU should continue to advance measures aimed at reducing its dependence on petroleum and promoting the development of renewable energy sources, and green technologies.

By Jiashun TANG