The Rising Geopolitical Role of Turkey in the Middle East and Central Asia
Photo source: Reuters
Turkey, a nation straddling both Europe and Asia, has been increasingly asserting its influence in the Middle East and Central Asia. This shift represents an evolution of Turkey’s foreign policy from a primarily Western-focused orientation toward a more regionally balanced approach. Historically, Turkey’s foreign policy was structured around its relationship with Western powers. Its membership in NATO and its long-standing aspiration to join the EU reflected this orientation. However, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power since 2003, Turkey has pursued a more independent and assertive foreign policy. This policy, often referred to as “neo-Ottomanism,” seeks to re-establish Turkey as a regional power, drawing on the historical legacy of the Ottoman Empire, which once controlled vast territories across the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Europe. In the Middle East, Turkey has become an active player. It has intervened militarily in Syria, Libya, and Iraq, driven by a combination of security concerns, geopolitical ambitions, and ideological alignments. In Syria, Turkey’s primary concern has been the Kurdish forces along its southern border, which it views as a serious security threat due to their links with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist group that has been fighting for Kurdish autonomy within Turkey. However, Turkey’s role in the region extends beyond security considerations. It has also sought to extend its influence through soft power, including cultural diplomacy, economic investments, and humanitarian aid. Turkish television dramas, for example, have been widely popular across the Arab world, subtly promoting Turkish culture and values. In Central Asia, Turkey’s influence is rooted in shared Turkic linguistic and cultural ties. The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to the emergence of five Turkic-speaking nations – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Turkey has sought to cultivate relations with these nations by promoting cultural and linguistic ties, offering economic aid, and investing in infrastructure projects. In addition, Turkey has been pushing for the establishment of a “Turkic Council,” an international organization comprising Turkic-speaking countries, to strengthen cooperation and coordination, particularly against the backdrop of Chinese and Russian influence in the region.
Turkey’s rising role in the Middle East and Central Asia has several implications
First, it has led to a realignment of regional alliances and rivalries. For example, Turkey’s interventions in the Middle East have strained its relations with some Arab countries, notably Egypt and Saudi Arabia, while bringing it closer to others like Qatar. Second, Turkey’s assertiveness has added another layer of complexity to the already tangled web of geopolitical conflicts in these regions. In Syria, for example, Turkey’s involvement has complicated efforts to find a political solution to the ongoing civil war. Third, Turkey’s pivot towards the East has strained its relations with the West. Its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems, for instance, led to a diplomatic crisis with the United States and other NATO allies. Turkey’s rising geopolitical role in the Middle East and Central Asia represents a significant shift in regional dynamics. As it continues to assert its influence, the implications for regional stability and international relations will be closely watched by the global community. While Turkey’s active involvement in these regions could potentially contribute to regional stability and development, it also carries risks. The country’s military interventions and assertive posturing have already led to conflicts with other regional powers and strained its relations with traditional Western allies. Balancing its ambitions with the need for regional cooperation and stability will be a key challenge for Ankara moving forward. On the economic front, Turkey’s investments in the Middle East and Central Asia could foster economic growth and development. Its involvement in infrastructure projects could contribute to regional connectivity and integration, providing a counterbalance to other powers like China with its Belt and Road Initiative. However, these economic interactions should be guided by principles of transparency and sustainability to ensure that they contribute to long-term development rather than fostering dependence or exacerbating economic disparities. Culturally, Turkey’s increasing influence is reshaping the identity and values of these regions. The popularity of Turkish media and the country’s efforts to promote Turkic culture and language could lead to a cultural renaissance and foster a sense of shared identity among Turkic-speaking nations. However, this must be pursued with sensitivity to the rich diversity of the region and respect for local cultures and traditions. In the realm of security, Turkey’s focus on countering perceived threats, particularly from Kurdish groups, could escalate existing conflicts and create new ones. While Turkey has legitimate security concerns, these should be addressed through dialogue and cooperation rather than military action. Finally, Turkey’s pivot towards the Middle East and Central Asia presents a challenge to the international order. It underscores the need for the international community, particularly Western powers, to engage Turkey in a constructive dialogue and find ways to accommodate its regional ambitions while upholding the principles of international law and respect for national sovereignty. Turkey’s emerging role in the Middle East and Central Asia is a development of significant geopolitical consequence. As this evolution continues, the international community must strive to understand and engage with Turkey in ways that promote regional stability, economic development, cultural respect, and security cooperation. Only through such an approach can the potential benefits of Turkey’s increased involvement in these regions be fully realized.
By Paul Bumman
