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Ceasefire on Shaky Ground: Escalating Tensions Between Israel and Hezbollah Threaten Fragile Peace

Israel and Hezbollah are exchanging claims of violations and retaliatory strikes, testing the limits of a precarious ceasefire. The growing dispute threatens to break the tense truce and plunge the region into new violence despite international efforts to mediate a settlement.

Monday was the worst day since the truce went into effect last week, with at least nine people killed by Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon. According to Lebanese health officials, there have been fatalities in the towns of Haris and Tallousa, and the number of injured is still growing. Israel began a fresh wave of airstrikes against “terrorist infrastructure” in Lebanon after Hezbollah fired two rockets into Israeli-occupied territory in retaliation.

The encounter demonstrates the tenuous nature of the truce, which was mediated by France and the United States and demanded that Hezbollah fighters leave regions close to the Israel-Lebanon border and that hostilities end immediately.

Tensions are heightened and the viability of the truce is called into question as both sides accuse one another of breaking the deal. Hezbollah’s aggressive tactics, including the reported use of military vehicles and tunnels close to the Syrian border, prompted the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to launch airstrikes in reprisal. Hezbollah contends that Israeli airstrikes and aerial intrusions into Lebanon violate the truce.

Since the truce started, Israel has violated about 100 times, according to UN peacekeeping personnel in Lebanon. The United States and France have also expressed reservations about Israel’s compliance. Israeli authorities, however, insist that their actions are required to uphold the deal and stop Hezbollah from reorganizing in southern Lebanon.

Deeply ingrained geopolitical tensions are the backdrop for this most recent flare-up. Israel sees Hezbollah’s presence close to the border as an existential threat, and the Iran-backed militant organization continues to be a powerful influence in the area. Both sides have justified their actions by pointing to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which put an end to the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006. However, the continued impasse is further made worse by the varying interpretations of this decision.

An Israeli tank near Israel’s border with Lebanon. Pic: Reuters


Hezbollah claims Israel is abusing the truce to support its unilateral military efforts, while Israel maintains that Hezbollah’s presence south of the Litani River is against the provisions of the deal.
International actors, such as the United States and France, are trying to maintain the tenuous truce while further complicating these contradictory narratives.

The ceasefire agreement calls for Hezbollah fighters to withdraw 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the border during a 60-day pause in fighting. Israeli ground forces are expected to leave Lebanese territory in exchange. However, enforcement relies heavily on a multinational committee involving UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese military, raising questions about its effectiveness.

Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department, has recognized the difficulties in upholding a ceasefire in such a violent area. Miller stated on Monday that “the truce has been successful broadly,” while he acknowledged that any such arrangement would inevitably have violators. It is now the responsibility of negotiators to resolve these violations in order to stop the situation from getting worse.

Although the ceasefire is thought to be the first step toward a permanent truce, there are still many obstacles in the way of peace. There are strong external and internal influences on both sides. While Hezbollah must manage its dual roles as an armed militant organization in Lebanon and a political party, Israel places a high priority on preserving security along its northern border.

The main supporter of Hezbollah, Iran, and the larger dynamics of US influence in the area complicate things. Lebanon is already struggling with political unrest and economic collapse; a new conflict might worsen the situation and have catastrophic effects on the civilian population. Even while the current truce is in jeopardy, it also offers a chance for all parties to reconsider their stances and seek a more long-term solution. Trust-building initiatives and the ongoing participation of foreign mediators such as the United States, France, and the United Nations will be necessary for that to occur.

A region that has historically been characterized by cycles of violence may undergo a sea change if the ceasefire is maintained. But if it fails, the repercussions might be disastrous for the Middle East as a whole, not just for Israel and Lebanon. The world eagerly watches as tensions simmer, hoping that diplomacy will win out over destruction.

By Ioana Constantin

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