Nicaragua’s Drift toward the Ortega-Murillo Dynasty: the 2024 Constitutional Reform and Its Far-Reaching Consequences

Photo: Reuters
The Democracy Index 2023 by the Economist Intelligence Unit highlights that “less than 8% of the world’s population live in a full democracy, while almost 40% live under authoritarian rule—a share that has been creeping up in recent years”. Part of this 40% is represented by the Nicaraguan population, governed by the leadership of politician and guerilla José Daniel Ortega Saavedra. He entered the political scene as a member of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional, FSLN), the revolutionary movement that overthrew the dictatorial regime of Anastasio Somoza Debayle in 1979. His figure gained more and more credit, to the extent that he held the presidential office from 1985 until 1990 before regaining power in 2007, obtaining a second term that he still holds today after 17 years. Ortega’s power has been consolidated through continuous internal reforms, pushing the country increasingly from an electoral autocracy toward a closed autocracy, as evidenced by the recent constitutional amendment.

The constitutional reform of 2024: a response to the tensions of 2018
On November 22, 2024, Nicaragua’s history was marked by a crucial event that not only has its roots in past events but also appears to carry profound repercussions for the country’s future. On this date, the unicameral National Assembly unanimously approved a bill to partially reform the political Constitution of the Republic of Nicaragua. In support of this decision, the President of the aforementioned legislative body, Nicaraguan politician Gustavo Eduardo Porras Cortés, stated that achieving peace in life lies in “respecting the Political Constitution of Nicaragua.”
The mention of constitutional respect and peace can only be understood in depth by reflecting on the events that marked the spring of six years earlier. In April 2018, in fact, Nicaragua was hit by a wave of social protests that highlighted the deep political and social tensions plaguing the country. Initially focused on contesting President Ortega’s desire to reform the social security system, the demonstrations quickly became a mass anti-government movement.
The streets were the backdrop to a veritable popular uprising denouncing the deterioration of democracy, the violation of civil rights, and a succession of severe abuses. The citizens’ demand for the resignation of Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, however, met with violence and government repression. Ortega’s harsh response concealed his intention to further consolidate power and led to a dramatic outcome: around 300 people were killed, over 2,000 were injured, and an unknown number were detained and tortured.
In the following years, this scenario, marred by continuous acts of cruelty, was accompanied by exponential social repression. The constitutional reform approved today by the legislature is thus nothing more than a formalization of the response already adopted by the Nicaraguan government since 2018. It, therefore, represents a concrete attempt to define a new institutional set-up that can ensure the current system’s survival.
The constitutional amendment that will change the future of Nicaragua
The Global Freedom Score identified by Freedom House indicates that Nicaragua is currently classified as a “not free” country. The overall score is 16 out of 100, with political rights rated 4 out of 40 and civil liberties at 12 out of 60. When comparing this data with the 2017 report, before the events of 2018, the situation looked very different. The country was classified as “partly free,” the general score was 47 out of 100, with political rights and civil liberties at 14 and 33, respectively. This change reflects an increasingly authoritarian form of governance. The trajectory points toward an autocratic scenario with a dominant presidential system and a hegemonic party, as evidenced by the recently approved constitutional amendment. At this point, a question arises: what does this constitutional reform, involving more than one hundred articles, entail compared to the current constitution?
Centralization of control: the collapse of the separation of powers in Nicaragua