The Democracy Index 2023 by the Economist Intelligence Unit highlights that “less than 8% of the world’s population live in a full democracy, while almost 40% live under authoritarian rule—a share that has been creeping up in recent years”. Part of this 40% is represented by the Nicaraguan population, governed by the leadership of politician and guerilla José Daniel Ortega Saavedra. He entered the political scene as a member of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional, FSLN), the revolutionary movement that overthrew the dictatorial regime of Anastasio Somoza Debayle in 1979. His figure gained more and more credit, to the extent that he held the presidential office from 1985 until 1990 before regaining power in 2007, obtaining a second term that he still holds today after 17 years. Ortega’s power has been consolidated through continuous internal reforms, pushing the country increasingly from an electoral autocracy toward a closed autocracy, as evidenced by the recent constitutional amendment.

Systematic denial of human rights and suppression of political opposition

Immunity from legal persecution shows a close correlation with respect for human rights, which are often violated, as happened on several occasions. In 2021, when the last elections were held, numerous presidential aspirants and other opposition figures were arrested. Accused by Ortega of betraying Nicaragua, many fled the country or were detained before they could present the necessary documents to be officially included in the ballot. Among them were Juan Sebastián Chamorro, a prominent Nicaraguan political family member, and Félix Maradiaga, a former cabinet member and one of Ortega’s most outspoken critics. The Supreme Electoral Council (Consejo Supremo Electoral – CSE) also revoked the legal status of parties that would take part in the elections, such as the Democratic Restoration Party (PRD) and Citizens for Liberty (CxL). This fact highlights how the supposed opposition in the elections comprises Ortega’s collaborators. On the contrary, they would not even be allowed to compete.

This picture has prompted unprecedented criticism from José Miguel Vivanco, a human rights lawyer and former Human Rights Watch (HRW) executive director. Vivanco states that “Ortega’s deliberate and flagrant crackdown against peaceful opposition leaders is something without any presence in Latin America since the 70s and 80s when most of the region was under military dictatorship.” His words evoke a painful past for Latin America, a past, however, that mirrors Nicaragua’s present. Amid this climate, in June 2021, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken asked President Ortega to immediately release the detained candidates and announced sanctions against members of Ortega’s family and inner circle.

Censorship, ‘Voluntary Police’ and patriotic symbols: the total control by the leadership
The forms of repression that occurred in 2018 and 2021 targeted not only prominent political figures and the civilian population but also journalists and the country’s information network more broadly. As Article 68 of the Constitution outlines, the state will ensure that the media is not subservient to foreign interests and does not disseminate news deemed dangerous to the stability of governance. In other words, what the state exercises on information is strict censorship. While at the theoretical level, there is the supervision of information, at the practical level, order is maintained by the legalization of the Voluntary Police. As made explicit in Article 97, the Voluntary Police, with the role of an auxiliary body, will serve as a support to the National Police. The word Voluntary Police, used by the Ortega regime during its fourth presidential term, recalls those who repressed protests against the government in 2018. The constitutional reform thus legalized the country’s paramilitary groups. This is also accompanied by the strengthening of patriotic symbols with the imposition of the FSLN flag. Once a symbol of a revolutionary movement, the FSLN flag has now taken on the character of a political party. This culminates in the representation of Ortega and Murillo’s increasingly authoritarian leadership.

Future prospects: Nicaragua’s political and economic crises amid growing isolation
Nicaragua’s current political, economic, and social situation does not promise anything positive in the democratic sphere, at least in the near future. Ortega’s calculations have drastically curtailed political plurality and democratic participation to the point that the rule of law and individual dignity have been eliminated. Indeed, rights and guarantees can be suspended by presidential decree in the name of national security. However, this suspension is arbitrary and does not apply to the small circle that gravitates around Ortega.

It is precisely to protect this circle that on November 18, 2024, the Law for the Protection of Nicaraguans from Foreign Sanctions and Aggression was enacted. Designed to counteract international sanctions imposed by the US Treasury Department and other governments, this law seeks to remove sanctions on over 50 Nicaraguan public officials accused of public corruption and human rights violations. Such measures reinforce the nepotism of the regime, thus rendering pressure from the international community ineffective and further consolidating Ortega’s power.

Nepotism under Ortega’s presidency permeates every sphere. The regime’s favoritism is evident in areas such as the appointment of presidential advisors, control of major national television channels, and lucrative activities in strategic sectors such as oil and energy. It has led to an exponential growth in the wealth of the Ortega family and its close circle of power. However, this extreme concentration of wealth made Nicaragua the second poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, with only Haiti ranking lower.

As reported by World Bank Group data, Nicaragua had a gross national income (GNI) per capita of $2,270 in 2023. This reflects an extremely weak economy that lacks incentives and is affected by a vicious cycle of inflation and unemployment. The $4.66 billion in remittances recorded in 2023 demonstrate the country’s dependence on foreign revenues, highlighting the economic failure of the dictatorship. It is about data that the dictatorship, without citing its source, turns into symbols of triumph, adopting a dialectic that lawyer Vivanco calls Orwellian.

If the analysis of the country’s internal political and economic condition is negative, the situation in the international arena is no different. The actions of Ortega and Murillo have placed Nicaragua at the center of strong international isolationism. In September 2019, the Organization of American States (OAS) Commission, concerned about the weakening of democratic structures and the worsening of human rights, planned a trip to Nicaragua. The mission aimed to implement all necessary diplomatic efforts to end the political and social crisis in the country. However, the presidency’s response was not to grant access to the delegation members within the country.

In November 2021, with the re-election of Ortega, the OAS claimed that the voting had not complied with the criteria of free and fair elections. Those in Nicaragua are actions that have no place in the democratic model established by the Charter of the Organization of American States. The affront to Article 3d, which emphasizes a commitment to the effective exercise of representative democracy, demonstrates an important attack on the democratic governmental structure. As a consequence, this led to Nicaragua’s withdrawal from the Organization of American States Charter on November 19, 2023, as the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela had done years earlier.

Besides violating the Organization of American States Charter, Nicaragua’s increasingly authoritarian character also breaks ties with the Tegucigalpa Protocol that established the System of Central American Integration (Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana – SICA). Among SICA’s cardinal principles are democracy, freedom, and the protection of human rights, principles that are notably absent in Nicaraguan governance. As a result, the most likely consequence is Nicaragua’s possible expulsion from the SICA.

This analysis is based on recent events, with particular attention to November 28, 2024, when four Central American SICA member republics—Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama, and the Dominican Republic—issued a joint statement. The document rejects the list presented by the Daniel Ortega regime, led by former Foreign Minister Denis Moncada, to occupy the SICA General Secretariat. The decision is supported and justified by the fact that none of the candidates represent the principles of SICA.

The future of Nicaragua appears uncertain and severely compromised. The country is going through a crisis of devastating proportions that affects all internal sectors, from politics to the economy. At the social level, as highlighted by the Human Rights Index, the violation of human rights has reached an unprecedented level, not seen since at least 1857, the year of the end of the Filibuster War. Internationally, the country seems destined for a growing and inevitable isolationism, which will only be mitigated by the solidarity from the Bolivarian, Cuban, and, more recently, Chinese governments.

By Azzurra Bassetti