Over the last thirty years, globalization has altered the face of the global manufacturing sector. In the pursuit of cutting costs and increasing efficiency, multinational companies started moving away from home countries towards areas where there was an abundant labor force as well as favorable business regulations. In this competition, China came out as the frontrunner of the global “world’s factory” concept, combining low-cost, large-scale infrastructure and trade networks integrated into the global economy. By producing everything from electronics and textiles to automotive components, China’s emergence essentially transformed world supply chains and validated the offshore manufacturing idea of the global South. Yet lately, growing dissatisfaction has arisen with the intensely globalized production model. The US-China trade war manifested in 2018, whereby hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods exchanged went under tariffs, suggesting an abrupt alteration of the global trade laws. The COVID-19 pandemic additionally highlighted the fact that shipping only a small number of medical supplies through highly concentrated supply chains, especially in such essential sectors as medical apparatus, semiconductors, and drug manufacturing, is very precarious. Besides that, geopolitical tensions, which technology restrictions and national security reasons can illustrate, have created a need for reshoring and bringing production closer to home for some countries. This has resulted in the emergence of two new strategies known as “decoupling” and “de-risking,” which especially explore how Western economies can reduce their reliance on China without completely cutting off economic relationships. During this changing background, nearshoring has enjoyed increasing popularity. Nearshoring, or relocating manufacturing and supply chain operations to countries near each other, provides a compromise solution between globalization and total localization. It seeks to fight off political risks with cost advantages while at the same time ensuring uninterrupted logistics. Mexico has witnessed a tremendous surge as a nearshoring destination for the United States due to its geographic location west of the US, which offers short dispatch/transport time and favorable operating policy integration into the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) framework.

Also, Mexico is an attractive location because of its relatively low-cost labor force, fast-growing manufacturing sector, and the experience of integrating with US supply chains – especially the automotive, electronics, and aerospace sectors. In recent years, as many international corporations have chosen to reduce their dependence on China, Mexico has begun to attract a considerable amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) from these entities, making it a viable and increasingly appealing choice.

The article covers Mexico’s nearshoring manufacturing trends and how they are affected by the shifting nearshoring era. It aims to explore the sector and region’s intents, the measures that the US has taken in that direction, and the difficulties that may lead to the curtailment of future growth. It will also combine trade policy, labor economics, and a strategic geopolitical approach to achieve a holistic picture of the change in the landscape of North American supply chains due to nearshoring that suggests Mexico’s central role in the whole thing.

There is a growing interest in nearshoring stimulated by the twin economic and political factors and the changes in global supply chains that shaped the 20th-century model. The main trend is the worsening trade tension between the US and China, which influenced corporate reasoning on the place of manufacturing. To put it another way, from the year 2018 onwards, the Trump administration levied tariffs on many Chinese imports, causing actions by China in response and generating uncertainty for businesses that depended on US-China trade relations. Under President Biden, these tensions continued, especially involving tech export restrictions on semiconductors and advanced manufacturing equipment. This is a precursor to the possible drop-off of economic ties between the two countries.

In the meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic has indirectly exposed the inherent vulnerability of openly distributed industrial networks concentrated in Asia. Lockdowns, port closures, and shipping bottlenecks postponed the arrival of intermediate and end products, causing not only an increased lack of supply of essential products like personal protective equipment and consumer electronics but also major disruptions to firms. Such unforeseen incidents for multinational companies made them realize the strategic risk of having an arrangement with a supplier who is accessible only through long-distance traversing. After this incident in the supply chain, the concept of supply chain resilience has become a much-prioritized system for companies, and a vehicle to advance this system is the nearshoring concept.

Efforts to contain this trend in the US also include the extension of selective industrial policies to boost domestic and local manufacturing sectors. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the CHIPS and Science Act, both enacted in 2022, have made a significant amount of clean energy production and semiconductor fabrication subsidies and tax incentives available for businesses within the US territory. As a result, companies are not only inclined to move their production back but also relocate their production activities to the region within North America, where there is more diagnosis and delinquency for production decisions from regulatory, logistical, and strategic standpoints.

Consequently, Mexico has been the winner in the new trade specifications and trends. Located geographically near the United States, Mexico can’t be beat because of its low transportation cost, short delivery time, and lack of headaches for border coordination. In the 21st century, “just-in-time” supply chains that used to be valued are exchanged with “just-in-case” approaches, which means that Mexico’s geographic location considerably reduces the risk of being exposed to global shipping disruptions.

Another reason why Mexico is a better choice than China may be China’s gradually rising labor cost compared to Mexico’s, as well as wage inflation and demographic pressure. At the same time, China is increasingly facing growing pressure to meet the demand for low-cost but close-to-home production. Thus, Mexico is currently and increasingly becoming a most favored location for firms seeking cost-effective and logistically close manufacturing solutions.

The existence of the USMCA institutional framework, which includes tariff cuts and secured trading rights, elaborates on Mexico’s attractiveness. The second USMCA provides free access to the world’s most dominant market and uses the same language for all parties regarding labor rights, intellectual property, and dispute resolution. Contrary to the other low-cost countries, Mexico is part of a trade bloc that guarantees a higher degree of predictability and legal protection to foreign investors.

Finally, the country’s existing industrial park and still poor infrastructure contribute to the growing trend. However, Mexico’s positive side is that it has an established experience related to the production of automobiles, electronics, and medical devices with US firms on a direct basis. Moreover, in the nearshoring process, Mexico can be a good site to invest in because of this experience. Let me now conclude this article. Overall, the conditions for an increased nearshoring boom in Mexico are getting stronger, although some challenges, as we have stated, are becoming more or less evident.

Recently, the manufacturing sector in Mexico has recorded a spectacular increase due to its massive investments and fabled position in the world’s supply chains. The foreign direct investment (FDI) that penetrated Mexico in the year 2023 reached an all-time high of $36.06 billion, attracting around 50%, which is equivalent to $18.1 billion of the whole FDI. This influx exemplifies the magnifying allure of Mexico as a production basis.

The automotive industry plays a major role in this prosperity. The year 2023 saw Mexico producing 3.77 million vehicles, which represented a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. It is this expansion that has led to the increased demand from North America for the new manufacturing facilities that global automakers are setting up. An example is Tesla, which has a plan to set up a Gigafactory in Nuevo León, with as much as $10 billion in investment. Although the project encountered difficulties stemming from tariffs and many other factors, it points to the confidence of players in Mexico and its manufacturing mayhem.

Apart from the automotive industry, the electronics industry has also attracted massive investments. For instance, Foxconn is constructing what is expected to be the world’s largest facility for assembling Nvidia’s GB200 Superchips in Mexico. At the same time, companies like Lenovo and Samsung, among numerous others, have expanded their manufacturing operations in the country owing to the presence of Mexico’s skilled labor force and its proximity to the U.S. market.

Geographically, the growth of manufacturing is centered in areas such as Monterrey, Guadalajara, and Tijuana. Monterrey, as a place that has welcomed much investment from businesses in the high-tech sector, has been keen on attracting manufacturers from different sectors. Guadalajara, popularly known as the “Silicon Valley of Mexico,” is home to many electronic and IT-based industries. In contrast, the city of Tijuana has benefitted from its location near the U.S. border, which makes logistics access easier.

Another variable that has helped idolize Mexico’s sector in manufacturing is the reduced labor cost of manufacturing. The hourly manufacturing wage in Mexico in the year 2023 was about $4.90 vis-à-vis about $6.50 in China. Accordingly, the cost difference between the two countries, combined with Mexico’s trade agreements and the country’s skilled workforce, entrenched Mexico as an attractive locale for firms in search of optimizing production costs vis-à-vis quality.

Overall, the Mexican manufacturing sector is setting a record of strong growth as a direct result of the major investments made by foreign investors, diversification of the sector, and the development of strategic regions. Through these two main pillars, Mexico has maintained its position at the top of the manufacturing chain and further solidified it with weak (cheap) labor and trade power with the United States, among other things. Due to the dynamics of global supply chains, Mexico is playing a more strategic part in international business networks.

Though nearshoring has made Mexico one of the most favored countries that stand to gain from the transformation of international supply chains, this strategy has become a challenge for the country as it has a plethora of problems facing its implementation. Mexico is still facing several structural and geopolitical difficulties that prevent it from fully making use of this manufacturing renewal.

One of the overarching issues is the challenge of maintaining internal law and order. Mexico has for a long time when it comes to such factors as organized crime or traumatic experiences because of cartel-related violence, which not only affects the population but also becomes a problem for foreign investors. Logistics routes, in some instances, are obstructed, and those companies whose operations are in these high-risk regions may need to pay extra for insurance coverage or even face interruptions. These may adversely affect the confidence of investors even more, particularly for those firms that are looking for stable and long-term sites for manufacturing.

Infrastructure hurdles are another point that complicates the nearshoring matter. Even though some cities, among which Monterrey and Guadalajara can be named as the most interconnected, many areas can’t offer enough ports, modern railways, and reliable power supply. The underdevelopment, in this case, causes problems for logistics and seizes the efficiency most companies can enjoy when nearshoring. The fact that Mexico’s public investment in infrastructure, compared to its OECD peers, is historically the lowest also adds to the matter.

Another drawback is the deficiency of a workforce able to perform technical tasks. While Mexico has a huge labor force available and its wages are not high, the education and vocational training systems also do not follow the demand for a high-tech manufacturing workforce that has special skills. Employers often complain about the absence of workers who are skillful in robotics or electronics assembly and process engineering. Hence, if getting better workforce development covers the gap between the demand and supply, Mexico may find it difficult to be the home for the predominate segment of international supply chains.

Political and anti-regulatory surveillance could be the above-mentioned barricade. Implementation of the US’s trade rules, such as modifications to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement or levies of new tariffs, can instantly put a negative light on the nearshoring. Besides, the change in the policy landscape of Mexico, including the rising of energy nationalism and foreign investment, had created doubt on modular regulatory predictability. Supply chain management between the cross-border requires stability of the legal and institutional framework, which is not ensured in any case.

Next, being aware that nearshoring is not equivalent to a complete decoupling from China and the other Asian economies is much more important. In the case of Mexico, the majority of intermediate goods used in its assembly lines, which can be mentioned as semiconductors, batteries, and precision components, come from East Asia. Such sustainment of global inputs brings Mexico’s manufacturing competitiveness that slightly relies on the distant suppliers. And because of it, the real advantages of nearshoring can be affected by the disturbances elsewhere in world trade.

To sum up, Mexico is in a dominant position since the country can gain a lot from nearshoring, yet it needs assistance in addressing all the problems that it has. Enhancing the internal security level, developing infrastructure, investing in the country’s intellectual potential, and focusing on the achievement of policy stability are key steps for Mexico to become not only an assembler but also a manufacturer. Without these initiatives, nearshoring might theoretically look great but location-bound in real life, as it will just remain a partial solution.

Now, Mexico is experiencing the peak moment in the process of reshaping the supply chain worldwide. The relative “window of opportunity” is the result of the convergence of favorable regulations, geography, which is close to the global center of consumer demand, and rising investor interest. The transition to nearshoring, whose main drivers are geopolitical uncertainty and economic restructuring, gives Mexico the chance to be an adequate and strategic alternative to offshore production centers such as China.

Indeed, Mexico manages domestically to overcome some of the conditions (such as the lack of infrastructure, skills in the labor force, and raw security). In that case, the country will have great opportunities to capture a larger share of the world’s manufacturing business. Mexico, for example, could become a central base for the assembly and production of cars, electronics, and sophisticated consumer products for the North American market. First and foremost, these enhancements would position Mexico against its export rivals and reinforce its industrial foundation and, consequently, the country’s economic stability.

However, it is important to state that Mexico is not going to be the only one to achieve that and eliminate China. China remains the king and the best player in this market due to its economies of scale, perfect industrial ecosystems, and incredible domestic market. Yet, among all the categories and sectors in which China is the leader, the high-tech sector, such as precision electronics, green power generation, and AI-centered manufacturing, is getting more and more attention every year. Therefore, what commentators mostly foresee is not a winner-takes-all collision but rather a complex symbiosis where one player will outperform the other on a specific frontier: Chinese development of upstream innovation and Chinese component manufacture. At the same time, Mexican production will be increasingly positioned for downstream assembly and intermediate customization throughout the Americas.

For the future, the intensification of the supply chain integration of the North American economy is an unavoidable decision. USMCA creates the legal basis for trilateral cooperation among the USA, Mexico, and Canada in various areas of industry. With U.S. industry policy focusing on resilience, sustainability, and regionalization, Mexico is likely to play a vital role in shaping the manufacturing sector in the future. Additionally, geopolitical rivalries and interruptions by climate change may push the re-alignment of global supply chains into trade blocs and enhance the relevance of Mexico in the current world development.

In conclusion, the growth of manufacturing in Mexico will not only be in the hands of market factors but predominantly in the ability of the country to introduce structural reforms and keep investors interested in the manufacturing sector. In case the above-mentioned conditions are met, nearshoring might transform itself from a temporary arrangement into a permanent strategy that will reshape Mexico’s position in the global economy and, therefore, the shape and direction of the North American industry.

By Qingning Zhao