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Russian geopolitics in the Balkans

In recent times, the Balkan region has recorded important news concerning the international relations. In fact, the western Balkans’ states are achieving substantial progress: Montenegro has become the 29th member of NATO; The Republic of North Macedonia ended a years-long dispute with Greece over its official name and it is working towards the full membership in NATO; Peace talks on the future of Kosovo are moving ahead. Overall, tensions in the Balkans are decreasing.

To the Russian president, however, these are unwelcome news, reflecting as it does a stabilization of the Balkans and a strengthening of its ties with Western Europe. Putin considers Western nations’ embrace of the Balkans to be part of an effort to encircle Russia and deprive it of its place as a world power. Thus, Moscow is making effort to get in the way.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vucic in Sochi, Russia December 4, 2019. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS 

 

Actually, Russia pursues no grand strategy beyond obstructing the expansion of NATO and the EU. It lacks the will and the means to establish itself as a regional hegemon, emulating the Soviet Union in the Cold War days. The Western Balkans, which are heavily dependent on the EU for trade and investment, are unlikely to seek deeper integration into Russian-led initiatives such as the Eurasian Economic Union. Even neutral Serbia, which is closest to Russia in foreign policy terms, has not gone any further than a free-trade agreement and observer status within the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

Moscow has largely lost its fight for influence in the Balkans: Nine of the area’s 12 countries (plus Kosovo, which is not a United Nations member) are in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and all the Balkan nations are either in the European Union or aspire to be in it. Serbia remains the real last Russian pillar in the region. Without a clear geopolitical strategy of Russia, the Balkans will pass definitively under the United States and European influence. Moscow is losing its old ally in Europe.

Will the Balkan region become the new bastion of the west?

By: Domenico Greco