Understanding the Microeconomic Impact of Covid-19 Lockdowns in Africa
The Covid-19 cases are now well over 1.5 million. While the curve is flattening in a few countries, in many other countries fears are mounting as the peak appears quite unattainable in the shortest foreseeable future. The general conjecture is that the lack of concern and empathy on the part of the international community at the initial stages of the outbreak forms the prelude for the wanton international spread of the disease. Probably a concerted effort at the initial stage could have nipped the crisis in the bud.
African countries were the last badge in the line of spread. Initially unfounded rumours had it the late reporting of cases in the continent was an ineluctable consequence of the lack of (or inadequate) testing kits and other equipment. Now we know that those rumours are unfounded because when the cases were finally reported no abnormal jump in the curve has been recorded, thus far. If it were so, 2 or 3 weeks into the reporting the continent should have observed abnormal jumps here and there. As of 8th April the total number of reported cases in Africa was a still below 12000. Indeed, this constitutes a very negligible share of the global total and, despite reports that Africa is still ill-equipped, there is no tangible picture over the horizon to foresee an exponential increase in the cases, at least in the shortest possible future.
But as cases erupted and fears mounted the calls for total lockdown equally gained grounds in Africa. It did not actually take long before Africa governments also toed the lockdown spree. Aside the difficulties associated with its enforcement – the numerous instances of military-civilian fracas, for example – lockdowns (would) pose tremendous economic difficulties for the masses, most especially the market women who form the micro base of the economy.
Traditionally and historically African markets and trade hubs are predominantly subsumed by women. In a typical African society it is the practical occupation of women to carryout virtually all the economic exchanges at the market. Outside observers might call this divide sexist but it has always been the prime definition of social division of labour in traditional African societies. Needless to say that the monetary benefits accrued from the market transactions carried out by the women, constitute the main source of financial support for households. It is this money a typical African household uses to defray its debts, buy other essential goods, pay children’s school fees, just to mention a few.
Interestingly, the movements and sojourns of women traders in Africa are not restricted to only within-country markets. Their presence in cross-border and regional trade is heavily pronounced. Take a look at West Africa, for example, cross-border trade is astonishingly dominated by women. The report “Women and Trade in Africa” published by the World Bank meticulously documents the great contribution of African women in unearthing the continent’s enormous trade potential. Hence their contribution to regional economic integration and to the economy cannot be underestimated.
The above discussion reveals that it is these women who would helplessly endure the immediate and primary effects of total lockdowns in Africa. Obviously, it is their source of livelihood and occupation that is at stake during this pandemic. But the remote effects surely will be the financial strain on households as their supporters and ‘benefactors’ are barred from engaging in their accustomed daily trade routines. So the longer these lockdowns take the longer families have to bear strain financial and economic difficulties.
But the mechanism has a broader side. It is worthy to learn that African economies are largely supported by the so-called “shadow” economic activities. In 2018 the International Labour Organisation (ILO) reported that the shadow (or informal) economy alone accounts for 85.8 percent of all kinds of employment in sub-Saharan Africa. The percentage of women in the informal sector is also higher than that of men. Therefore any temporal suspension of women economic activities in the region would have very dire macro consequences in the long run. In other words, it is this forgotten micro effect of lock downs on African women traders that will later thrust, arguably, the most disastrous effect on the aggregate economy. It therefore leaves one to wonder deeply the post-Covid-19 economic status of African countries.
Considering these enormous immediate and remote effects of lock downs in Africa, it is imperative that governments carefully devise workable strategies to support the market women. It is recommended that some leeway should be accorded these women to carry out some aspects of their economic activities while at the same time maintaining social distancing, practising common-sense hygiene and observing other precautionary measures. Unfortunately, the focus so far has been the doling out of freebies to people and the freezing of rents and utility bills, among others. No practical support has so far been rolled out to gracefully support market women. According some leeway to market women surely is a compromise in the fight against the virus, but surely the long-term benefit of this short-term compromise is enormous. Probably the governments are in deep slumber and have not realised this yet, but I fear they will wake up at a time when all hell had broken lose. A time when the urgency to bring the economy back to normal life will entail great sacrifices and costs that the governments cannot roundly bear.
By: Iddrisu Kambala Mohammed.