The evolution of Covid-19 in Switzerland

In Switzerland, the total number of people infected with  COVID-19 is 28.063, while there have been at least 1.478 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic (according to the latest data 4/22/2020, 9:38:22 AM).

Currently, 3.340 people between the ages of 0 and 101 are admitted to Swiss hospitals. These people have an average age of 72 years. The hospitalizations concern men in 61% of cases.

The FOPH (Federal Office of Public Health) also states that of the 2.896 people admitted with complete data, 13% had no pre-existing illnesses.

This means that 87% of patients already suffered from one or more illnesses. The first is hypertension, followed by cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.

Among people hospitalized, the three most present symptoms are fever, cough and respiratory problems. 44% of the cases had pneumonia.

In Switzerland, there are 138 deaths per million inhabitants and the majority of deaths are male (59%). The age of the victims varies from 27 to 104 years and the average age of death is 84. 97% of the 1.100 deceased with complete data, suffered from one or more pre-existing diseases. Also here the most mentioned pathologies are arterial hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.

Switzerland, like many other countries, is also organizing “Phase 2”: the gradual relaxation of restrictive measures.

The only sure fact is that the majority of the Swiss believe that the relaxation of the COVID-19 containment measures should be combined with the widespread use of masks and the obligation to use them in public places.

For the time being, the Swiss government has therefore announced that it will begin relaxing the restrictive measures from 27 April.

As a first step, facilities with a limited number of direct contacts will reopen to the public, where protection plans can be easily implemented and which do not generate a large flow of people. Hospitals will once again be able to carry out all surgical procedures, even non-urgent ones, and will reopen outpatient clinics, hairdressers, massage salons, beauty salons, DIY and gardening shops and florists.

Then there will be a second and third phase in which all other activities will also reopen: from 11 May compulsory schools, other shops and markets will reopen, while from 8 June secondary schools, vocational schools and universities will reopen.

Also from 8 June, recreational and leisure facilities such as museums, libraries, botanical and zoological gardens can reopen.

At this stage, the ban on assembly may perhaps be loosened, as can be seen from government communication.

However, the details of this third phase will be discussed in detail from 27 May, based on epidemiological developments.

On Monday, April 20, the federal authorities met in Bern to update the Swiss population about the coronavirus emergency in the country.

The information meeting was attended by Patrick Mathys, Head of the Crisis Management and Cooperation Section of the Federal Office of Public Health (Bundesamt für Gesundheit, Schweiz); Erik Jakob, Head of the Promotion Directorate at the SECO (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs) and Brigadier Raynald Droz.

The rapporteurs, in addition to health issues, also talked about economics, particularly tourism.

During the meeting, in fact, Erik Jacob also spoke about the serious economic crisis that has affected and will affect tourism and all related activities due to the COVID-19.

The tourism (hotels, restaurants, ski lifts), in fact, is one of the economic sectors most affected: demand in Switzerland has dropped by 80-95%.

In some ways, it can be said that COVID-19 has killed tourism. In addition, one in three Swiss citizens has set aside their travel plans outside of Switzerland.

For this year, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs calculated a fall in turnover of up to 35% and then a slow recovery in the second half of this year. However, this economic upturn will depend on a multitude of factors. According to Jakob, however, a normalisation is expected from 2022.

In the coming weeks, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs will have to work out together with the industry players what protective measures are to be taken to ensure that there is common homogeneity. In the longer term, other instruments are planned to support the tourism sector. “Switzerland Tourism”, for example, has requested an additional credit of CHF 40 million to promote Switzerland as a tourist destination: the aim is to stimulate demand, including domestic demand.

In general, this “Great Lockdown” will lead to the biggest global recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF, regarding Switzerland, estimates that the decline in the economy in 2020 will be -6.0%, after having grown by 0.9 in 2019, while in 2021 there will be a recovery to 3.8%.

For this year, SECO forecasts a reduction in GDP in Switzerland between 7% and 10%, a slump not seen since the 1974 oil crisis.

According to experts, there are two scenarios: a first scenario (V-shaped trend) GDP will fall by 7.1% and then grow rapidly by 8% in 2021.

In the second scenario (L trend) after a 10.4% collapse, there will be a slow and timid recovery that will produce an increase in the economy that will not exceed 3% in 2021.

The impending crisis, caused by the pandemic, is much more serious than expected just a few weeks ago, has also noted in recent days SECO, which certifies a decline in productivity of 25% (on 19 March the decline was 10%) with peaks of up to 80% in the restaurant sector and 50-60% in retail and transport. In civil aviation, for example, the COVID-19 hit not only Switzerland but all countries in the world very hard. This sector will perhaps suffer for longer.

For example, Swiss International Air Lines (although part of the Lufthansa Group) had to use short-time work allowances to cover fixed staff costs (9.563 employees).

The company is facing losses estimated at CHF 4-5 million per day and does not have sufficient reserves to cover this financial bleeding for a long time, with only 20% of its flights planned for this summer.

The companies that are certainly suffering the most from this situation are generally the medium and small-sized ones. They are increasingly seeking credit on the basis of the financial support plan implemented by the Swiss government on 27 March.

The plan allows bank loans guaranteed by the Confederation in order to solve the liquidity problems of companies and cover the shortfall in revenue due to government restrictions to contain the spread of the coronavirus. The interest-free and unbureaucratic loan will be provided by the banks quickly – at most one day – for credits not exceeding CHF 500,000. The Confederation guarantees 100% of the loans up to CHF 500.000 and 85% of the loans between CHF 500.000 and CHF 20 million. The government’s aim is to safeguard jobs and try to curb the economic damage of the pandemic.

In this dramatic situation, however, it is good to see trust in the authorities. This data comes from a poll published in recent days in the newspapers of the group “Tamedia”.

According to this survey, an overwhelming majority (83%) have confidence in the decisions of the Swiss Federal Council.

Two-thirds (65%) believe that the measures taken by the Confederation do not cause too much damage to the economy compared to the beneficial effect on the healthcare situation in the country. It is interesting to note, however, that there is a certain difference between the population according to the community in which they live, for example, the percentage is lower in German-speaking Switzerland (55%) than in French-speaking Switzerland (69%) and Ticino (67%).

What is certain is that Switzerland will suffer less from the economic crisis than many other countries in the “north of the world”, i.e. the rich ones.

This thanks to a highly developed economy with a credit rating rated by rating agencies as AAA (the highest) and low public debt (36% debt/GDP).

Furthermore, Switzerland is a world leader in chemicals and pharmaceuticals industries, but also in the service sector, particularly financial, banking and insurance.

Moreover, having its own national currency, its own Central Bank and its own monetary policy, it has the power to use the devaluation of the CHF against the Euro and the Dollar to support manufacturing exports.

This opportunity is bound up with the fact that international finance has traditionally regarded the CHF as a liquid currency with stable long-term value and therefore ideal as a safe haven.

By: Michele Brunori