In a decisive election, Iceland’s Social Democrats defeat the ruling coalition.
In a stunning snap election, Iceland’s Social Democratic Alliance defeated the ruling coalition that has ruled for the last seven years to become the country’s largest party. As voters voice discontent with the current state of affairs, the results, which were finalized on Sunday, suggest a possible change in the political landscape of the country.
The Social Democrats gained 15 seats in the 63-seat Althingi parliament after receiving 20.8% of the vote. The 36-year-old Kristrún Frostadóttir, who led them, is currently a serious candidate for prime minister. Frostadóttir, who is well-known for supporting the Nordic welfare model, ran a campaign to address Iceland’s cost-of-living crisis, which was exacerbated by high borrowing costs and inflation.
Kristrún Mjöll Frostadóttir, leader of the Samfylking, Social Democratic party, is interviewed by Icelandic TV station Stöð 2, in Reykjavik, Saturday Nov. 30, 2024. at the celebration party following the closure of the polling stations. (AP Photo/Marco di Marco)
The process of establishing a government is not simple, though. A coalition is necessary under Iceland’s legislative system in order to obtain a majority of 32 seats, and no one party was able to do it on its own.
“It very much depends on whether [Frostadóttir] can convince the president that she is the most likely to form a coalition,” said political scientist Stefania Óskarsdóttir from the University of Iceland.
With 19.4% of the vote and 14 seats, the Independence Party, led by departing Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson, finished in second. The late spike of support for Benediktsson’s conservative party maintains him in the running to perhaps hold the premiership, contingent on coalition negotiations, even if it lost its leading position.
The Liberal Reform Party, which finished third with 11 seats and 15.8% of the vote, is expected to act as a kingmaker.
“The Reform Party is critical because they have the option of joining a coalition with the Social Democrats and the People’s Party or forming a coalition with the Independence Party and the Centre Party,” Óskarsdóttir explained.
The election was called last month in response to growing public dissatisfaction over issues including as housing shortages, energy policy, and migration, as well as intensifying disputes within the ruling coalition. Voters demanded practical solutions to social inequity and rising expenses, and these divisive issues dominated the campaign.
The coming weeks will be critical as parties negotiate potential coalitions. Frostadóttir would be the first Social Democrat to lead Iceland in more than ten years and one of the youngest prime ministers in Europe if she is successful in establishing a cabinet. Under her leadership, social safety nets will be strengthened, and Icelanders’ urgent economic problems will be addressed.
However, if Benediktsson manages to hold onto power through coalition-building, the Independence Party’s more conservative approach could shape Iceland’s policies for years to come.
Either way, Iceland stands at a political crossroads, with voters demanding change and a new direction in governance. The next government will need to navigate the country’s economic challenges while balancing public expectations for progress and stability.
By Ioana Constantin
