Met Office: UK temperatures of up to 40°C are likely to become ‘normal’ by 2100
The study was published in the journal called Nature Communications and it explains the temperatures increasing due to human influences on the climate. In the report, Met Office researches ale clear about European heatwaves becoming more severe and summers in the UK also getting warmer.
Last July, the record temperature of 38.7°C was noted in Cambridge. The question is when the temperatures up to 40°C will occur, if we won’t mitigate greenhouse gas emissions?
The researchers analysed the extremes across the country and applied the results to create a ‘climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology’. They found out that temperatures above 35°C are becoming more common in the southeast, whilst temperatures over 30°C are likely to occur at least once per decade in the north.
They report finds that summers which will see temperatures above 40°C in the UK happen every 100-300 years and that right now the chances of UK hitting 40°C are extremely low. However, the study warns that during the course of the century, the most extreme temperatures are expected to be observed, especially in the Southeast of England.
It also adds that the occurrence of such temperature can decrease to every 3.5 years by 2100. The researchers took different scenarios into consideration, depending on the levels of carbon released into the atmosphere. For example in a high emissions scenario, a 40°C day occurring every 3.5 years by the end of the century. The report states:
“We finally compute the likelihood of exceeding an extreme threshold in a given year, not at a specific location, but anywhere in the UK. The chance of rising above, for example, 40 °C, the most extreme threshold examined here, might still be very low for a given location, but has been increasing in most areas under the influence of warming trends.
“When all grid boxes are examined together, the likelihood of getting at least one grid-box that exceeds 40 °C in a specific year is expected to be higher than a local likelihood.” it adds.
The focus of the analysis is said to derive ‘local information from observations rather than regional models’ as well as looking at the possible extremes anywhere in the UK, rather than specific locations. Some of the uncertainties in analysis include the transfer functions and limited number of years they are based on.
“Although the transfer functions make a distinction between urban and rural locations, large future changes in the UK’s urban landscape could present a caveat in the analysis, though this is likely to affect only a small fraction of grid boxes.” it describes.
The article on BBC News from 30 June 2020 by Matt McGrath provides insights from Prof Peter Stott from the Met Office and one of the paper’s authors. He said: “And when we’re looking at extremes that we haven’t seen before, then it’s something to take very seriously because the buildings, the care homes, the homes that people are living in, are not necessarily adapted for such temperatures.”
In the article, the professor also highlights the risk of elderly people who are particularly vulnerable to such extremes. Especially with the colder part of the UK seeing ‘hike in temperatures’. The source also included a quote from Co-author and head of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre Dr Mark McCarty, who explained the aim of the research:
“This research shows human-caused climate change has set us on a course to see temperature extremes in the UK that would be highly unlikely under a ‘natural’ climate, although urgent action to reduce emissions now can significantly reduce the occurrence of extreme high temperatures in the UK in the future.”
The article from 2nd of July on Climate Action website, adds:
“The reports projections conclude the chances of hitting these dangerous temperatures are significantly reduced if global carbon emissions are reduced in line with the Paris climate agreement.”
By Julita Waleskiewicz
