January 14, The Russian military has deployed and sustained major forces on or near Ukraine’s border, raising significant concerns in Washington and other NATO capitals that the Kremlin may be planning a new assault on its western neighbor. 

Meanwhile, Moscow has demanded security guarantees for Russia and indicated that it otherwise will take unspecified “military-technical” measures.  Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA, will discuss the Russian build-up, the military options it gives the Kremlin, and how a Russia-Ukraine conflict might play out.

Economic sanctions remain one of the most powerful tools the United States has in its foreign policy arsenal. And as Russian forces continue to amass along the border with Ukraine, officials in the U.S. hope the threat of those sanctions can deter a full-scale invasion. Besides sanctions that target individuals or specific companies, some proposals involve cutting Russia off from the SWIFT system, which would remove Russian institutions from an important global financial network.

Another target is the near-completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which when operational would double the amount of natural gas moved from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea and likely reduce the need for other pipelines, such as the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline that runs through Ukraine.

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has proposed a bill that would require automatic sanctions against Nord Stream 2 operators within two weeks of Russia invading Ukraine. The bill failed to pass on Thursday(1.13), but picked up a handful of Democratic votes in the final tally.

Democratic Sens. Robert Menendez, of New Jersey, and Jeanne Shaheen, of New Hampshire, proposed an alternative bill that would “impose crippling sanctions on the Russian banking sector and senior military and government officials if President [Vladimir] Putin escalates hostile action in or against Ukraine.”

Ukrainian government websites were splashed with a warning to ‘be afraid and expect the worst’ as a massive cyberattack hit the country. A U.S. official voiced fears that Russia was preparing to attack its neighbor if diplomacy failed

According to RIA Novosti on the 15th citing the Tver court in Moscow, Russia, the court arrested 8 members of the hacker group REvil for a period of 2 months. The hacking group rose to prominence after being accused in the West of carrying out large-scale cyberattacks on U.S. companies.

Earlier, the Russian Federal Security Service announced that it had searched all 14 members of the hacker group REvil, determined the organization’s composition, and found that its criminal behavior was mainly through the development and use of malicious software, organized theft and cashing of foreign countries. Funds in people’s bank accounts, including buying expensive items online. The police seized more than 426 million rubles (including digital currency), $600,000, 500,000 euros, as well as 20 luxury cars, computer equipment and digital currency wallets from 14 members of the criminal gang.

The FSB stressed that at the request of the U.S. authorities, the Russian side carried out the above-mentioned search and arrest operations.

January 16, U.S. officials believe Russia is laying the groundwork to invade Ukraine. The National Security Council says Russia has positioned a group of operatives to conduct a so-called “false-flag operation” in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, a cyberattack knocked out several government websites in Ukraine on Friday. CBS News correspondent Christina Ruffini has the latest, and UCLA political science professor Daniel Treisman talks to CBSN’s Lana Zak about why these moves are significant.

January 17, Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed U.S. support for Ukraine’s sovereignty in the face of increasing Russian threats.

By Astrid_Zhang Lehan