The nuclear crisis and the failure of the Vienna negotiations
The nuclear crisis and the failure of the Vienna negotiations have triggered extremely high tension between the two historical enemies in the Middle East. “The war with Israel has already begun,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told the Israeli daily Maariv. “Israel conducted attacks that were aimed at destroying our nuclear programme for peaceful purposes. It killed nuclear scientists and caused harm to the Iranian people. Iran is accused of terrorism, but there is no good or bad terrorism. The whole crisis in the region is Israel’s fault,” the spokesman added.
Khatibzadeh went on to stress that Israel “did everything” to bankrupt the Vienna nuclear talks and spark a conflict between Iran and world powers.
The spokesman then said that Iran had already decided to return to the negotiating table for the seventh round of talks with the aim of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, which has been abandoned by the US in 2018, and that this decision had already been communicated to the EU. The last meeting was held last June before the new government led by Ebrahim Raisi took office. On the question of whether reviving the nuclear deal would avert a military operation by Israel, Khatibzadeh said: “Israel has seriously damaged our research system. There are discussions about an Iranian nuclear threat, but Israel has hundreds of bombs and has never signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
Tehran in recent days has also recalled Israel’s friendly relations with Azerbaijan, and called Baku’s objections to Iranian military “large-scale manoeuvres” on its border, perceived as a threat, unfounded.
The Islamic Republic has also been irritated in recent weeks by a series of military exercises in Azerbaijan, which began on September 12, involving Azerbaijani, Turkish and Pakistani forces (Three Brothers 2021), as well as the presence of Turkish armed forces taking part in naval exercises on the Caspian Sea.
For Iran, this goes against the spirit of the Caspian Agreement according to which only countries bordering the sea are allowed to deploy military forces there.
In addition, the fact that Azerbaijan maintains good relations with Israel is certainly something negative for Iran. Indeed, in recent years Baku has purchased billions of dollars worth of Israeli weapons, including “kamikaze drones”, which proved devastatingly effective in the Azerbaijani victory in last year’s second Nagorno-Karabakh war against Armenia.
These were the clear points of reference Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh made in response to a comment by Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev who said he was “very surprised” by Tehran’s decision to hold drills near his country’s border. “It is clear that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not tolerate the presence of the Zionist regime near its borders, even if it is only a spectacle, and will take any necessary action to protect its national security,” Khatibzadeh later said on September 28.
“The exercises carried out by our country in the northwestern border areas are a matter of sovereignty,” Khatibzadeh added.
In fact, Iran has decided to move a large number of military assets to an area on the border with Azerbaijan to carry out military manoeuvres. Khatibzadeh also said that Aliyev’s comments go against the favourable nature of relations between Tehran and Baku, stressing that the military exercises were necessary to contribute to the “calm and stability of the entire region”.
Aliyev, for his part, has also objected lately to how Iranian trucks have taken a route through a corner of Azerbaijan to transport supplies to the Karabakh territories still controlled by Armenians. Azerbaijani authorities have begun charging the drivers of these trucks a road “tax”, while two drivers have been arrested. Iran has said that the transport is carried out by private companies and that the Iranian state has no control over the choice of the route.
Baku said they were surprised and issued warnings.
The Iranian defence minister, Mohammad-Reza Ashtiani, responded with a threat: “Tehran’s enemies must not take irrational steps that could have an overwhelming response from the Islamic Republic.
Three days ago, again, the spokesman for the Iranian foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, spoke of “a question of sovereignty”, thus suggesting that the military exercises are taking place near Azerbaijani territory, but as if they were taking place next to the Israeli border.
Tehran said it would not tolerate the presence of “the Zionist regime” on its borders, in a clear reference to the close relations between Baku and Israel. Azerbaijan is in fact the largest supplier of oil to the Jewish state and as I mentioned earlier also an important buyer of sophisticated Israeli weapons.
“Everyone can carry out any military exercise on their own territory. It is a sovereign right. But why now and why on our border?” asked Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
There is no single answer to this question.
But even taking into account that the operations had been planned by Iran for some time, it cannot be excluded that they were indirectly accelerated by the pictures of Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid on Thursday, who visited Bahrain with US generals and representatives of the al-Khalifa monarchy to affirm Tel Aviv’s presence in the waters of the Gulf, right in front of Iran.
Tehran feels that Israel is keeping it under increasing pressure thanks to its old and new Arab and Muslim allies. This is why the tone has suddenly become threatening towards Baku, which has been cooperating with Israel for decades in various fields including intelligence.
By Michele Brunori