Australia’s foreign policy analysis
The Australian government said on 14 September 2022 that the head of Queen Elizabeth II on the Australian $5 note would not necessarily be replaced by the incoming King Charles III, and that a change to a local Australian figure would not be ruled out. The Royal Australian Mint will also stop issuing coins with the Queen’s head from next year. The female has long been the head of state of the United Kingdom, reflecting the historical continuity of the British political system and continuing to symbolize the unity and stability of Great Britain with its other identified queens as heads of state. But as Elizabeth II’s seven-decade reign came to an end, calls for Australia to move away from the Queen as head of state continued to grow. Indeed, Australia’s foreign policy is likely to undergo significant adjustments as the world situation continues to evolve and the global distribution of power continues to change. Australian politics have changed considerably since it emerged onto the world stage as an independent nation from British rule. In terms of foreign strategy, Australia was totally dependent on Britain at the beginning of its independence, seeing Britain as a provider of security protection. After World War II, recognizing the decline of British leadership and the formation of a bipolar world, Australia took a stated position in foreign policy in favor of the United States. With the end of the Cold War and the development of Asian countries such as China, Japan and South Korea, Australia’s foreign policy began a new shift.
Australia’s political power and economic strength cannot be underestimated. There is no doubt that Australia is a middle power – a country of medium overall power in the international community, with a degree of participation and influence in international affairs, particularly regional affairs. In a series of official documents, Australia has clearly established itself as a middle power, knowing that it will not play a minor role in the international community because its economy is the sixteenth largest in the world and its size is the sixth largest in the world; and that with a population of 20 million and a small domestic market, Australia cannot be a dominant power in the Asia Pacific region where there are many large countries. As a result, Australia has given itself a clear and realistic identity as a medium power.
But even with its political and economic strength, Australia has been forced to pursue ‘balanced diplomacy’ in the Asia-Pacific region, where international competition and disputes are at an all-time high. In the Asia-Pacific region, between China and the US, Australia faces a ‘dichotomy’ of geo-economic dependence on China and geo-political dependence on the US. On the one hand, ‘geography’ and ‘culture’ have always been the two main determinants of Australian foreign policy, and have shaped two very different Australian diplomatic traditions. As a Western country located in the East, Australia has always faced a conflict between geography and history and culture. Australia is a ‘European country misplaced in Asia’ and is undoubtedly a part of Western civilisation in terms of its ethnicity, language, religion and values. Australia has long regarded itself as an overseas extension of European civilization and has a strong identification with Western culture, religion and values. But on the other hand, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner, number one export destination, number one source of imports and number one source of overseas investment, Australia’s dependence on the Chinese economy is at an unprecedented level. It can be argued that China will, to a large extent, determine Australia’s future economic well-being.
For this reason, Australia can only adopt a more neutral plus balanced policy in the overall diplomatic landscape. Between its ultimate security guarantor (the US) and its most important economic and trade partner (China), Australia can only carefully maintain a tenuous strategic balance between the US and China, lest it be put in the uncomfortable position of having to ‘choose sides’ between them. Australia’s strategic balance between China and the US is not an absolute balance of impartiality, but rather a balance between the feelings of both China and the US, trying to avoid outright anger with either China or the US in order to prevent the strategic balance between China and the US from being upset.
At the same time, Australia is one of the strongest advocates of multilateralism and regional economic integration for the sake of its own welfare and the stability of world markets. Unlike global powers, the diplomatic arena for middle powers is not global but regional. As a middle power and a regional power, Australia is determined to exert influence regionally rather than globally. In the South Pacific region and Oceania, Australia is the number one power and leader. As a result, Australia has focused its foreign policy on the South Pacific, aspiring to be a regional power and seeking to play a leading role in the South Pacific, where it has been the largest aid donor to South Pacific Island countries and a leader of the Pacific Forum. Australia will continue to use the region as a diplomatic arena for its role as a ‘creative middle power’.
In summary, Australia’s foreign policy has been politically and security-wise closely aligned with the West, and in the second half of the 20th century, as an ally of the US, Australia followed the US into the Korean, Vietnam, Gulf and Iraq wars. Today, the Australia-US alliance remains the rock of Australia’s diplomatic warfare and defence strategy, and the Australia-US relationship remains unbreakable. But on the other hand, the geographical reality of our location in Asia dictates that Australia must look to Asia and integrate with Asia. Being located in Asia and neighbouring Asian countries is the most important geopolitical reality Australia must face. At a time of burgeoning regional integration, especially with such close economic ties between Australia and Asia, Australia has no more strategic options than to actively pursue an Asian orientation and integration strategy. After all, Australia’s economic, political and cultural ties with Europe are already loosening.
Now, with the death of the Queen of England, there is a growing voice for a “democratic republic” within Australia, which will undoubtedly further weaken Australia’s ties with Britain. If Australia were to abolish the constitutional monarchy by referendum, it would cease to be part of the Commonwealth and become a fully-fledged Asia-Pacific country. This would further weaken Australia’s relationship with Britain and the rest of Europe and could have implications for the future direction of Australia’s foreign policy.
By JIN Kaiwei
