Analyst Hussein Ibish admits that he was also surprised by the announcement, which represents, in his opinion, “a major development in Middle East diplomacy”. The repercussions of the deal will be felt in Yemen, where the government, backed by a military coalition led by Saudi Arabia, has been fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels since 2015. Starting on Saturday, talks between the government and the Houthi rebels are due to take place in Geneva on a possible prisoner exchange. In exchange for the restoration of ties with Riyadh, “it is very likely that Iran has undertaken to put pressure on its allies in Yemen to be more cooperative in order to resolve the conflict in this country”, estimated Ibish. He warned, however, that “we still don’t know what compromises were made behind the scenes”. By restoring ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia appears to be pursuing a broad diplomatic offensive, which has already led it to approach Qatar and Turkey. For some experts, the lack of progress in the Iranian nuclear file, with the 2015 agreement moribund since the unilateral withdrawal of the US in 2018, leads Saudi Arabia to reposition itself to ensure that Tehran does not cross any red lines. “As tensions between Iran and the United States continue to ease, Saudi Arabia knows it will have to play a more proactive role in managing its relations with Iran,” notes Torbjorn Soltvedt of risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft. According to Aron Lund, a member of the Century International think tank, Syria could be the next step in this Saudi diplomatic strategy. The Saudi kingdom severed ties with Damascus in 2012, a year after the outbreak of civil war in Syria, mainly because of the close ties between Bashar al-Assad’s regime and that of Tehran. The restoration of ties between Riyadh and Tehran could therefore lead to a “closer relationship between Saudi Arabia and Syria”, says Lund. The closeness between Tehran and Riyadh also confirms the leading role that China wants to occupy in the Middle East, according to analysts. Despite its growing engagement in the region, with a December visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Riyadh, China was perceived as reluctant to get involved in the thorny Middle East. However, the Tehran-Riyadh agreement shows that Beijing is ready to play a leading role in the region, “a diplomatic victory for China and a significant break with the regional approach it has adopted so far,” Jonathan Fulton from the Atlantic Council points out. He believes in a paradigm shift that aims, among other things, to “challenge the dominance of the United States in the Middle East” In Hussein Ibish’s opinion, American President Joe Biden will still be sensitive to the stability that this agreement will bring to the region. And this because “the Biden administration opened the way by emphasizing the urgent need to promote diplomacy in the management of conflicts in the Middle East, especially in the Gulf region”, he added.

By Sara Colin