The Belt and Road Politics

As the Belt and Road initiative continues to deepen, the structure of China’s imports and exports with countries along the route, including independent brands, continues to optimize, and the trade structure index shows a continuous upward trend. The trade structure index, which represents the composition of various categories of goods or a certain type of goods in international trade during a certain period, experienced a brief downturn in 2023 but quickly rebounded to reach a historical high of 128.1. With the continuous increase in China’s bilateral direct investment with Belt and Road countries and the deepening of cooperation in industrial and value chains, the overall level of mutual benefit in trade has significantly increased, and the new stage of economic development is continuously deepening.

This fully demonstrates that after the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative, China’s economic and trade exchanges with Europe have reached a new peak, and the development of various indices reflects China’s economic development level, industrial structure, and technological development entering a new stage. In trade with European countries, it has also promoted China’s industrial structure adjustment towards higher levels of sophistication, technology, and added value.

Since 2016, the United States’ dominant dollar-based foreign trade policy has undergone significant changes. Its high tariff policy towards traditional trading partners has seriously threatened the stability of the global supply chain, especially for Europe, a long-standing industrial production base. Faced with this uncertainty, major economic and trade entities around the world, including European countries, have adjusted their trade strategies, erecting trade barriers in an attempt to protect their own economic interests while avoiding the negative impact of global economic turmoil. However, once trade barriers rise and market confidence declines, economic growth momentum will suffer heavy blows. According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global trade slowed significantly in 2018, and this trend continued to worsen in the following years. Against this backdrop, the stable and positive development of China-Europe trade is commendable.

In the active exchanges among countries along the route, the threat posed by high tariffs, represented by tariff barriers, has been reduced. The risk of significant inflation rates rising in various countries has also decreased, which plays an important role in global economic recovery after the pandemic. Additionally, the economic model based on free trade allows countries to achieve mutual development within the current world trade system of interdependence. The escalation of trade barriers not only signifies conservative economic policies but also represents a reversal of globalization. However, under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, the restructuring of global supply chains enables countries to be closely connected beyond self-sufficiency, increasing the proportion of economic globalization and positively impacting resource allocation efficiency. Against the backdrop of the current global economic downturn, countries worldwide must strive to promote multilateral trade cooperation rather than cling to protectionist trade barriers. Through large-scale international economic cooperation, led by the Belt and Road Initiative, communication and collaboration between nations can be strengthened, allowing them to jointly explore export markets, develop economic and trade relations, and reduce reliance on a single market. It is encouraging that in an increasing number of international economic conferences, leaders from various countries recognize the importance of trade liberalization and are strengthening the formulation and implementation of relevant policies.

By HE Guanli