TELEGRAM, Mon amour!

A week has passed since the strange arrest of the TELEGRAM owner in Paris. I immediately considered two scenarios, the first of which included the involvement of the Kremlin, namely that Putin pushed Pavel Durov to visit France with a special purpose, but in agreement with President Macron, and the second aimed at a defection of Durov and his surrender to the West, disguised as an initial arrest. Today I will explain why I believe more in the second scenario. TELEGRAM has proven a great value of use, an extremely useful source of alternative information in the context of widespread censorship during the pandemic and the Ukrainian war. But TELEGRAM is a social network with access to the search data of about 1 billion users, an inestimable wealth that is coveted by all the giants of the planet, the great geopolitical and economic players. Although the network has become so popular precisely because, through the encryption mechanism, it does not allow access to the content of user conversations, our search data is stored, and by analyzing it anyone can infer our consumer profiles, from political choices to food and sex, so everything relevant to geoeconomic players.

We know about the Durov brothers that, after they left Russia, falling into disgrace with the Putin regime because they allowed the public display of the opinions of the “Tsar’s” oponents, after the launch of TELEGRAM, they were financed mainly by Russian oligarchs, the brothers often traveling to Russia under the pretext of seeing their relatives, although they have settled in Dubai as UAE citizens. It is clear that if TELEGRAM had not benefited from Putin’s clemency, the Durov brothers would not have lived in this relaxed way (perhaps they would not have lived anymore!), and the Russian army would not have communicated predominantly using their network. There was an officially unconfirmed rumor that at the time of his arrest at the Paris airport, Durov allegedly said that he was expected for dinner by President Macron.

Later, it was reported that Pavel Durov would have requested that the person announced of his arrest be the French billionaire Xavier Niel, who is none other than the son-in-law of Bernard Arnault, the billionaire who disputes world supremacy with Elon Musk, Arnault and Niel being both also among Macron’s cronies and protectors. We can therefore consider that there was communication, possibly complicity, with the French presidency, and depending on the evolution of events in the future, we will also be able to confirm the failure of Pavel Durov, a matter in which I believe.

Another important element for the reasoning is that Putin and Durov were at the same time in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, Putin with the purpose of an official visit, but Durov’s purpose is unknown. My suspicion is that an eventual mediation was attempted between the Russian president and the head of TELEGRAM, and the Azeri Aliev was the most suitable host for the mediation. The mediation, which was clearly aimed at using the potential of TELEGRAM, I assume failed, being followed by Durov’s apparently suicidal departure to Paris, under the conditions that he was subject to an arrest warrant completed as early as March 2024. So, my hypothesis, although insufficiently argued for now, is that Pavel Durov was actually extracted by the Americans through the French channel, and this extraction was masked by arrest, extended to 96 hours precisely for credibility. Also in this register of credibility, you must also read the unprovoked self-disclosure of the head of FACEBOOK, the day after the arrest of his rival, that is, we should understand that Americans are campaigning for transparency, laughable.

Back to Putin and the Russians, after a series of outraged and clumsy statements following Durov’s arrest they suddenly fell silent, leaving it to the Emiratis to formulate threats against France. We can’t know today what kind of data Durov took to France (carried by his Romanian bodyguard!), but it’s clear that it concerns TELEGRAM data or security keys, it’s his passport to maintain freedom. It is equally clear, however, that the one who knows everything about TELEGRAM, being the very creator from a scientific point of view, is Pavel’s older brother, namely Nikolai Durov, he is the smart one of the family.

Nikolai was considered a mathematical genius, he confirmed his status by winning the International Mathematical Olympiad for 3 years in a row, being also an Olympian in computer science. It is not known at the moment whether Nikolai is in Dubai or in St. Petersburg, but even if he wanted to, it is clear that an escape to the West is no longer possible for him, because he has become (probably has always been!) the key man for the survival and development of the TELEGRAM network.

If I reasoned and assumed correctly, the Operation “TELEGRAM, mon amour”, as I baptized it, marks the first victory of the Americans against the Russians since the beginning of the Ukrainian war. Depending on future developments, we will reduce its importance, if it is mere propaganda, or if Pavel Durov, now in the custody of the enemy of the Russians, really has the ability to control and invalidate the TELEGRAM mechanisms. There is also the possibility that, through the failure of Pavel Durov, a complementary underground negotiation mechanism was initiated between the Americans and the Russians, the future will show if it was so, because the version promoted by the propagandists, namely that Durov went like a fool in the claws of the wolf, must be totally excluded.

By Cozmin Gusa