Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission
Since the end of the 19th century, China has undergone a huge industrial transformation, from the construction and manufacturing to the energy-led heavy industry, including chemical production, steel forging, etc. Therefore, the consumption of coal has increased year by year. China surpassed the United States and became the world’s largest CO2 emitter before 2010. The carbon dioxide emissions of China have also increased year by year in the past 20 years. By analyzing China’s total CO2 emissions, the share of global emissions and world GDP since 1990. It can be clearly seen that although the economy is developing rapidly, this state is obviously contrary to the sustainable development strategy.
In 2015, China announced that it plans to reach the peak of CO2 emissions in 2030 in the Paris Agreement, which is the origin of the ‘peak carbon dioxide emission’. The so-called “peak carbon dioxide emission ” means that the total annual carbon dioxide emission reaches the highest value in history in a certain period, and then gradually decreases after reaching the peak value.
In recent years, the concept of peak carbon dioxide emission has had a very significant impact on China’s energy structure, economic development, and environmental policy formulation. Generally speaking, carbon emission reduction can be carried out through technological adjustment, scale adjustment and structural adjustment. Technical adjustment refers to the improvement of energy utilization efficiency through the improvement of technological means (for example, the integrated gasification combined cycle that converts traditional coal-fired power plant technology and subcritical power plant into coal-fired power plant) is the main reason for the decline in the growth rate of carbon emissions in China. Scale adjustment refers to reducing the size or population of a region’s GDP to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions. Structural adjusting the output structure (for example, reducing the output of carbon-intensive industries and increasing low-carbon-intensive industries) .
Guangyue Xu propose a simple solution model to decompose energy consumption into its quantity and structure, revealing the role of energy consumption structure adjustment in achieving the peak of CO2 emissions in China, and filling the current academic research on CO2 emission mechanisms and factors, focusing on industrialization, urbanization, industrial structure and technological progress. Shiwei Yu points out a new economic-carbon emission-employment multi-objective optimization model, which suggests that under the premise the total carbon emissions of core industries are very large, in addition to reaching the characterization of carbon emissions, the country’s economic level and employment rate must also be guaranteed. Therefore, the industry share of carbon-intensive and low-tech sectors should be replaced by high-tech and high-value-added sectors. The model considers the balance between constrained economy and environmental goals. But the fundamental reason for these results of structural adjustment is the irrational structure of China’s industrial output. In order to pursue the maximum growth of local GDP, local governments in China encourage investment in a large number of heavy industries and carbon-intensive production plants. Therefore, a carbon tax is generated, that is, carbon dioxide emissions are controlled through policy adjustments. According to Suiting Ding, an energy technology diffusion model based on bounded rationality to explore the possible impact of different carbon tax conditions on China’s energy technology diffusion is proposed. This model not only increases the irrational judgments of decision makers on installation costs and consumer investment confidence, but also optimizes irrational behavior of decision makers. The results of the model’s peak carbon emissions show that, regardless of whether a carbon tax is implemented, China will reach its peak carbon emissions around 2030. However, the level of carbon tax will affect the peak of carbon emissions and the rate of increase or decrease. High carbon taxes will undoubtedly significantly reduce the peak and growth rate of carbon emissions.
Researchers have not only analyzed whether China can reach the peak carbon dioxide emission, but also predicted the surrounding environment under this limitation. Pengcheng Wu took Guangzhou, as an example in China. He explores different situations and evaluates physical health and air quality, combined with NCEP FNL ‘s atmospheric chemical transmission model, and proposed a new comprehensive evaluation framework. Chenmin took Beijing as an example to analyze key technological advances such as electric vehicles, zero-emission space heating, and CCS to determine the feasibility of turning Beijing into a CO2 zero-emission city by 2050, and uses its IPAC model to quantify Beijing’s emission scenarios.
Most of experts pay attention to the national, provincial or industry level, discussing the impact of the peak carbon dioxide emission. And some experts try to assess the emission path of cities and explore the peak carbon dioxide emission in cities, although most simulations show that China can indeed reach its carbon peak in 2030, both the establishment of various models and the improvement of policies are just relatively conservative judgments. The emission policy and economic development goals promised by the Chinese government are still the assurance of carbon peaks. Although the carbon peak was first proposed by China, other parts of the world, especially developing countries, should also gradually adjust their industrial structure, focusing on the development from highly polluting heavy industries to more sustainable and inclusive related industries. All the experts and governments should strive together to move closer to low CO2 emissions and respond to the common climate challenge of mankind.
By Demi Zhang
