Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to rise by less than 1% this year as renewable and EVs take off
Finally, some encouraging news in the fight against greenhouse gases: CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels are expected to climb by less than 1% this year. This is despite widespread fears of a return to coal, oil, and gas in the face of a global energy crisis and Russia’s war in Ukraine. We may thank electric vehicles and increased use of renewables for the surprisingly tiny rise. The International Energy Agency published its projection in a study on Wednesday, indicating that CO2 emissions will rise by 300 million metric tons in 2022, reaching 33.8 billion tons. This is a far lesser increase than the approximately 2 billion tons saw in 2021 when the globe recovered from the Covid-19 epidemic.This year’s rise is mostly due to the aviation industry, which was badly damaged by the epidemic. “The global energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced several countries to hustle to find other energy sources to replace the natural gas supplies that Russia has withheld from the market.” “The good news is that solar and wind are covering much of the gap, and the increase in coal appears to be very minor and transitory,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement.
“This indicates that CO2 emissions are rising at a far slower rate this year than some had predicted, and that government policies are causing genuine structural changes in the energy industry.” These developments are expected to increase as a result of substantial renewable energy policy measures that have advanced in recent months throughout the world.”
According to the IEA, if renewable and electric vehicles had not been widely deployed throughout the world, the increase in emissions would have been substantially bigger, perhaps reaching 1 billion tons.
As a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, natural gas prices have skyrocketed, and CO2 emissions from coal power generation, driven mostly by Asia, are expected to rise by more than 200 million tons, or 2%, this year.
However, the paper states that the rise in coal emissions has been “very moderate” and is “considerably balanced by the development of renewable.”
This year, the globe saw unprecedented growth in solar and wind power, generating more than 700 terawatt-hours of electricity. That is enough to power around 67 million US households for a year.
Moreover, despite substantial drought affecting large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, the overall outlook for hydropower remains encouraging — worldwide hydropower output has grown this year and is forecast to provide more than one-fifth of renewables growth.
The worldwide forecast comes only one day after a separate analysis revealed that the EU had generated a fifth of its electricity from renewable sources since Russia started its conflict, a record for the time period.
The IEA predicts that EU emissions will fall this year, despite the bloc’s increased use of coal. Several EU nations are increasing their use of coal in reaction to rising gas prices and Russian supply restrictions to several member states.
The report comes less than three weeks before the start of the COP27 climate talks in Egypt, where countries are expected to ensure that their emission reduction plans align with the main goals of the Paris Agreement: to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels.
The IEA’s prediction provides a brighter-than-expected background for the discussions, but experts caution that emissions must fall swiftly in order to meet the 1.5-degree target.
By Yimeng CHEN
