China & Russia vs. USA & EU: Are we observing a New World Order?

In recent years, there has been a noticeable shift in global geopolitics, with a possible China-Russia alliance that could be gaining ground, in front of the USA and the EU. This change in status quo is evident in the way China has been brokering historic peace deals, such as between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and exerting major economic influence throughout Africa. The BRICs alliance has also contributed to this trend, and many are wondering: is the world order REALLY changing?  To answer this question, it is important to first understand the current global political landscape. While the US was holding on to the hope that China would accept a supporting role in the liberal international order or, at most, would challenge American hegemony in the Western Pacific, that seems to be false. Under Xi Jinping, China is actively showing it’s desire to be a superpower. Postponing any global ambitions seems like a distant thought, considering that in the past few years, China has been actively preparing to challenge America’s position as the world’s undisputed leader. The big player on the board, the United States, has been the dominant world power for several decades, largely due to its economic and military might. The second biggest player, the European Union, while not as powerful as the US, has also played a significant role in global affairs, particularly in matters related to trade and diplomacy.

But China has been playing the long game, and emerged as a major player on the world stage in the past years. Its economy has grown at an unprecedented rate, and it now rivals the US in terms of economic output. China has also been increasing its military capabilities and expanding its presence in key regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia. Their naval shipbuilding program launched more ships between 2014 and 2018 than the combined fleets of the navies of Germany, India, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Beijing is attempting to control high-tech sectors as well, which will determine how future economic and military power is distributed. In addition, there is an ongoing campaign to control the crucial waterways off China’s coast, as well as reported plans to create a chain of bases and logistical facilities farther afield. In the Asia-Pacific region and beyond, deliberate attempts are being made to improve techniques for turning economic influence into economic coercion.

These changes, according to Xi, are the result of China’s rising might, riding on the coattails of a moment in history, that they perceive as being the West’s imminent self-destruction.

The United Kingdom decided to exit the European Union on June 23, 2016, and, little more than three months later, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States thanks to a populist upsurge. These two incidents were alarming from China’s standpoint, which is extremely sensitive to shifts in its perceptions of American dominance and threat. Beijing believed that the most influential democracies in the world were abandoning the international order they had helped to establish overseas, and were also having difficulty governing their own countries. The ensuing Western response to the coronavirus outbreak in 2020, followed by the fanatics’ assault on the US Capitol in 2021, reinforced a sense that “time and momentum are on our side,” as Xi Jinping put it. China’s leadership and foreign policy elite declared that a “period of historical opportunity” had emerged to expand the country’s strategic focus from Asia to the wider globe and its governance systems.

Russia, on the other hand, has been seeking to reassert itself as a major power after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, Russia has been flexing its military muscles and engaging in geopolitical maneuvering, such as its annexation of Crimea in 2014. The China-Russia alliance, therefore, represents a significant shift in global geopolitics. Together, these two countries have the potential to challenge the dominance of the US and the EU in various areas, including trade, energy, and military affairs.

Russia + China = love?

China’s approach to establishing global influence seems, so far, to be that they first establish regional hegemony. This does not entail physically occupying neighboring nations, as the Soviet Union did during the Cold War – perhaps with the exception of Taiwan. But it does imply that Beijing must establish itself as the dominant force in the Western Pacific, all the way to the first island chain (which stretches from Japan to Taiwan to the Philippines), it must sever American alliances in the area, and it must drive American military forces further and further from China’s borders. In short, China cannot be a true global power if it remains surrounded by U.S. allies and security partners, military bases, and other outposts of a hostile superpower. But…what if there’s another way?

When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and carved off two provinces, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it made an effort to enlist the help of China and members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization from Central Asia. Yet Dmitri Medvedev, the president at the time, had little success, in part because Beijing feared that the precedent of dividing up sovereign states would undermine its claim to be “sovereign” over Taiwan. Fast forward to March 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives now in Moscow. And the visit comes as no surprise, despite the fact a recent Chinese position paper, presented Beijing as a prospective arbiter of peace in Ukraine.

The relationship between Russia and China has been evolving since the mid-20th century. Both countries have a long history of mutual cooperation, and in recent years, their relationship has strengthened due to their shared strategic interests. While some experts view this alliance as a potential threat to global stability, others argue that it is a necessary counterbalance to the dominance of the United States.

Beijing is focused on the United States strategically because, according to Xi, it wants to “contain, surround, block, and suppress” China. In this context, Russia is the only significant country that shares Beijing’s reluctance toward American foreign policy. Beijing and Moscow essentially agree on a number of topics and work to change parts of the international system, from data sovereignty to the use of unilateral sanctions. Therefore, despite Moscow’s brutal invasion of Ukraine and claimed “annexation” of four Ukrainian regions over the past year, Beijing has leaned into its partnership with Russia. Yet, no one should expect Xi to impose conditions on President Vladimir Putin!

So why visit Putin? Mostly because, Beijing is trying to win over the many countries around the world, from Southeast Asia to Latin America, rather than the fact that they are invested in the outcome of the war in Ukraine.  And Latin America is a great audience so far! President Lula da Silva in Brazil is an example: he has called for China to become more involved in brokering peace in Ukraine, and has floated his own plan that includes a role for…you guessed it: China!

But what about Europe, whose connections China intended to strengthen in 2023 in part to counteract Washington’s initiatives? The Chinese are definately not under any delusion about how poorly they are currently doing in Europe. Their perception on the old continent is mostly due to the fact that Beijing won’t give up on Moscow and Moscow won’t give up on Ukraine. However, despite the harsh criticisms from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, not everyone in Europe has condemned the Chinese position paper. Even the smallest Chinese effort to contribute to peace in Ukraine can barely hurt China’s image in Europe, as long as there are Europeans, like French President Emmanuel Macron, who themselves cultivate ambitions to negotiate a settlement.

Of course, cooperation with Putin’s Russia comes with a price. But, it will benefit China as well. Beijing won’t likely leave Russia empty-handed after all. It will win contracts, assure Russia’s enduring economic dependence on China, and link the two countries’ resource producing and consuming sectors more closely together.

Does it smell like…trouble?

One of the most notable examples of how the world order is changing, is China’s role in brokering peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran. These two countries have long been bitter rivals, and their tensions have contributed to instability in the Middle East.

China imports large amounts of oil from both Saudi Arabia and Iran, and has significant economic and strategic interests in the region. However, China has generally preferred to stay out of Middle Eastern conflicts and has focused on building economic ties with the region instead. But everything changed this year, when arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they were restoring diplomatic relations, not because they managed to necessarily come to a consensus, but because of WHO brokered the deal: China. This represents Beijing’s first foray into Middle East mediation, an area that for the past few decades was largely occupied by Washington.

“Obviously, the United States could not have made this agreement possible because we don’t have a relationship with Iran. I think China was a good partner to do this. I think they’re the right people,” said Joseph Westphal, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, noting that China invests heavily in Saudi Arabia and is its top trading partner.

Another area where China and Russia are exerting their influence is Africa. China has invested heavily in infrastructure projects on the continent, such as ports, railways, and roads. This investment has helped to boost economic growth in many African countries, but it has also raised concerns about China’s long-term intentions and the potential for debt traps. Russia, for its part, has been deepening its ties with various African countries, particularly in areas such as arms sales and security cooperation. This has the potential to challenge the dominance of Western powers in the region and create new geopolitical fault lines.

The BRICs alliance, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is another example of the changing global order. These countries are all emerging powers in their own right and have been working together to promote their interests on the world stage. The BRICs have called for a more multipolar world, in which no single country or group of countries dominates global affairs.

So, is the world order changing? The answer is yes, but it is important to note that this is not a sudden or complete shift. A China-Russia alliance could be a significant development in global geopolitics, and it is indicative of the broader changes taking place in the world order.

The US and the EU still wield significant power, and it is unlikely that they will be displaced anytime soon. However, the rise of China, Russia, and other emerging powers, could be creating a more complex and multipolar world, where multiple players are fighting for influence and power. Who will win? That remains to be seen…

By Ioana Constantin