How a new Trump term will change American Foreign Policy

Although Trump is more focused on domestic policy, his last term proved that he is capable of completely changing US foreign policy. Trump withdrew from international agreements on climate change, troop deployments, trade, and nuclear weapons. He agreed to negotiate with dictators like Kim Jong-un (with whom he declared he “fell in love with” in a speech) and attacked European leaders. Many of Trump’s policies have been maintained by the Biden administration, such as the trade wars with China or the adoption of Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization, thus bringing irrevocable benefits to Americans. Trump’s “America First” foreign policy vision, presented during his inaugural speech on the steps of the US Capitol in 2017, will certainly be maintained and consolidated in this mandate as well.

Although the Republican Party has yet to present an exact foreign policy plan beyond general statements (restoring peace in Europe and the Middle East, strengthening and modernizing the military, etc.), Robert O’Brien, Trump’s former national security adviser and one of the main candidates for Secretary of State in the future administration, supplemented Trump’s statements so far in an article for Foreign Affairs. Thus, we can make fairly accurate predictions regarding US foreign policy in the coming years.

Ukraine and Russia

For the past nine years, Trump has insisted that China, not Russia, is the major threat to American economic and strategic security (or more precisely, hegemony). He planned in his first term to reach an agreement with Putin, using Kissinger’s “triangular diplomacy” theory and proposing to position Washington in the favorable corner of the triangle (i.e., the US being the power with better relations with the other two than they have with each other). Trump failed to bring the US closer to Russia in his first term due to domestic accusations that he was supported by Putin in the presidential elections, having to demonstrate a tough stance on Russia instead of the planned agreements. At the same time, the US Congress voted to impose tougher sanctions on Russia to corroborate these accusations and undermine Trump’s legitimacy by attacking the president’s supposed ally. Now, Trump realizes there is no more time for internal fights, US power is in decline, and it is crucial to prevent deepening alignment between Russia and China. He needs to quickly improve relations with Russia, lift sanctions, and offer Russia the opportunity to balance American desires with those of the Chinese.

The highest priority will thus be the war in Ukraine, with Trump declaring he will end the war on the first day after being elected, a promise demonstrated by choosing J. D. Vance as vice president, one of the main opponents of US aid to Ukraine. Trump has not publicly stated how he will reach a peace agreement, but two of his most important foreign policy advisers, Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, published a peace plan on June 25. Viktor Orban confirmed that their strategy coincides with Trump’s in a letter to EU leaders following his meeting with Trump. The plan thus includes increasing US pressure on Ukraine, forcing Zelensky to accept a ceasefire and the start of peace talks even if they do not foresee the recovery of lost territories. The most important part of this strategy is that all costs of maintaining the ceasefire and any reconstruction costs will be borne by America’s European allies. If Russia does not agree to peace talks (unlikely), Trump will go on the offensive, with the volume of American, but especially European, military assistance increasing.

The plan has been criticized for being too concessionary to Putin’s aspirations: the war in Ukraine is seen by China as a test for its own conflict with Taiwan: if the Russians receive Ukrainian territories, then China will have a green light to annex Taiwan. At the same time, a prolonged conflict would demonstrate NATO’s inability to face Russia. And there is always the possibility that Zelensky will refuse peace talks as long as the Americans cannot offer Ukraine anything in return, with NATO membership being unacceptable to both Russia and NATO members. Everything depends on Trump’s negotiating capabilities, but the fact that peace in Ukraine will finally be seen as a priority by an American administration is the first step toward Europe’s healing.

Europe and NATO

It is evident that Europe will be the most affected by the war in Ukraine. The costs of armament and financial losses resulting from sanctions will be added to the costs of rebuilding Ukraine and the problem of an unregulated arms market, transforming Europe into the “sick man of the world.” The only ones who might still want to help us are the Americans, but Trump’s “America First” policy eliminates this hope. Trump has stated that he will no longer invest in American bases in Europe but only in the US military, leaving European countries to handle their defense. But where will the money come from?

In his first term, Trump threatened several times to leave NATO if other member countries did not increase their contributions. He has now changed his strategy, recently declaring that he will end the NATO mutual defense commitment and allow Russia “to do whatever the hell it wants” to members who do not invest at least 2% of GDP in defense (only 11 out of the 32 NATO countries met this target in 2023). Amazinf news for all of the people whose governments made an enemy of the greatest military power in Europețs vicinity, right? Of course, Trump will not abandon all his European allies, improving US relations with other democracies led by populists and oriented toward the free market (ie Hungary), continuing with his plan to oppose globalist elites.

China

Trump’s anti-globalist rhetoric blames the abandonment of populism for China’s economic growth. Thus, as mentioned earlier, US policy will be much more aggressive towards China under his leadership. In addition to increasing tariffs on Chinese imports (numbers as high as 60% are suggested!), Trump wants to mobilize a strategy to check Chinese influence in Europe, Africa, and Latin America and to refresh American alliances in the Indo-Pacific. The big question, however, is how he will approach Taiwan: in previous statements, Trump has hinted that he would not want to defend the island, but the defining element of his term will surely be a tougher stance on China, which will inevitably include provocations in Taiwan and the South China Sea. Many worry that a war in Taiwan is imminent and that Trump’s heated rhetoric will further increase the likelihood of a conflict that would surely become a world war. Considering that Trump managed to maintain peace in his first term, despite being much less prepared than he is now, we can hope that an actual war will be avoided and the fight between the US and China will remain in the economic and strategic plans.

Middle East

Trump’s closeness to Israel, demonstrated by his moving of the American embassy to Jerusalem (a city long considered the capital of a future Palestinian state) and his recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and settlements in the West Bank, is seen as a cause for concern regarding the war in Gaza. US foreign policy is fairly constant in its support for Israel – in an article in Time magazine, Biden was declared the most pro-Israel president in American history – but Trump’s hatred for Iran could lead to the acceptance of an escalation of the conflict. We must remember that although Trump was the one who managed to impose the Abraham Peace Accords, his policy in Iran was quite aggressive in his first term, withdrawing the US from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and imposing a maximum pressure campaign of sanctions against Tehran. Tensions between the US and Iran not only led to Iran enriching uranium beyond established limits under Trump’s leadership but also nearly resulted in war (we can recall the threats following the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020). Trump will surely reapply maximum pressure on Iran to stop its support for anti-Israeli groups in the Middle East, from Hamas and Hezbollah to the Houthis, increasing in turn US support for Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Latin America

Trump will exert much more pressure on Mexico and Latin America to stop the flow of immigrants at the US-Mexico border. Trump has said this is a national security issue, that he will deploy troops to the border, and possibly even engage in military actions against cartels in Mexico. A military action at the border would be a disaster for the US, but it is unlikely to come to that. Trump will also continue his hostilities from the first term towards Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, with the only Latin American leader who can expect a closer relationship being Argentinian President Milei.

Thus, significant changes are announced from our most important ally, changes that we Europeans seem not to have considered, whether out of our own naivete or at the Democrats’ command. Globalist Europe will find itself abandoned in a highly dangerous corner of the world, a region defined by hostilities, unregistered weapons, and economic hardships, still reciting the Democrats’ statements on Russia and Ukraine and wondering how Hungary managed to come out on top despite its European ostracization. A continent having a foreign policy dependent on a great power is a problem, but relying on a partner planning to abandon you is a catastrophe…

By Daria Gusa