In a moment that once seemed inconceivable, Armenia and Azerbaijan on Friday signed a peace agreement ending nearly four decades of bloodshed over Nagorno-Karabakh, with U.S. President Donald Trump presiding over the ceremony at the White House.

The leaders, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, clasped hands in front of the cameras, signaling not just the end of one of the world’s most intractable conflicts, but a decisive realignment in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus.

Notably absent was Russia, long a dominant player in the region’s affairs. Once the indispensable mediator, Moscow has been sidelined, its influence diminished by military overreach in Ukraine, waning regional trust, and a rising willingness by former Soviet republics to chart a Western-oriented course.

Today we are establishing peace in the South Caucasus,” Aliyev declared. “We are writing a great new history.

Pashinyan, visibly emotional, called it “a chapter of peace” and an opportunity “to lay the foundations for a better story than the one we had in the past.” Trump, taking an unmistakable victory lap, framed the agreement as a breakthrough where others had failed.

Many tried — the European Union, the Russians — but they never succeeded,” he said. “With this accord, we finally succeeded in making peace.

Donald Trump flanked byAzerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev (left), and Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, during the signing ceremony at the White House on 8 August 2025. Photograph: Nathan Howard/EPA

The path to this moment began in September 2023, when Azerbaijan recaptured the Karabakh region in a lightning offensive. The campaign ended years of military stalemate but left the region politically volatile. In the months that followed, direct talks, largely without foreign mediation, began to thaw relations.

Friday’s signing ceremony capped months of delicate negotiations, and it carried a symbolic twist: the peace was forged in Washington, not Moscow, underscoring a historic shift in the balance of influence.

One of the most ambitious elements of the accord is the creation of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a major transit corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, which borders Turkey, via Armenian territory.

For Baku, the route offers a direct land bridge to its ally Turkey, bolsters its status as a global transport hub, and cements post-war gains through infrastructure diplomacy. For Yerevan, it represents a rare economic lifeline, a chance to tap into regional trade flows, attract investment, and diversify an economy battered by decades of isolation.

The corridor will operate under Armenian law, with the U.S. subleasing the land to an international consortium for infrastructure development and management. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly called it “unimpeded connectivity” that safeguards Armenia’s sovereignty.

As part of the peace framework, both sides agreed to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, the body created in 1992 to mediate the Karabakh dispute: “If we are closing the page on the conflict, then why do we need a format that deals with its settlement?” Pashinyan said earlier this week.

The move is a direct rebuke to Russia’s lingering claims of regional leadership. In recent months, Moscow’s attempts to reassert influence have included aggressive rhetoric, disinformation campaigns against Yerevan, and veiled threats.

Baku’s relations with Moscow have soured even further following the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 over Russian-controlled airspace last December, an incident that killed 38 people and which Azerbaijani investigators allege was caused by Russian air defense systems. Aliyev has vowed to pursue justice “for as long as it takes.”

For decades, the Kremlin maintained leverage in the South Caucasus by positioning itself as both mediator and security guarantor. But its invasion of Ukraine and subsequent geopolitical isolation have eroded that role. The Washington peace signing, without any Russian presence, is as much a diplomatic milestone as it is a geopolitical snub.

Moscow’s criticism has been swift and sharp. State media accused Pashinyan of “trading Armenian sovereignty for personal gain,” echoing similar conspiracy narratives it once used against Ukraine and Georgia.

But with the ink dry on the peace accord, Armenia and Azerbaijan have made their choice, one that points westward, away from Moscow’s orbit.

While the agreement is being hailed as a landmark, both sides acknowledge that peace will require vigilance. The corridor’s implementation, the reintegration of displaced communities, and the dismantling of decades-old animosities are challenges yet to be fully addressed.

Still, for a region defined by war and mistrust, the symbolism of two bitter adversaries signing a peace deal in Washington, without Russian oversight, is impossible to overstate.

As Trump put it: “They suffered greatly for so many years. Today, they chose peace. And the world is watching.”

By I. Constantin