The Middle East conflict has embroiled many countries, most of which have sided either for or against the US military attack on Iran. Once again, the EU appears fragmented and ambiguous in its support for or condemnation of Trump’s actions against Tehran. If there is one area in which European diplomacy, for once, managed to play a leading role, it is the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Between 2003 and 2015, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, supported by the European Union, successfully mediated negotiations between the Tehran regime and the United States, leading to the historic signing of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Today, the war unleashed by the US and Israel against the Islamic Republic confirms that that rare European ability to influence has vanished. European governments were informed of the attack on Iran after the missiles had already been launched, a sign of their fundamental irrelevance to the issue. And, faced with what is currently happening in the Gulf, their discourse and actions are so disparate that it once again becomes clear why the EU is struggling to formulate a clear and unequivocal foreign policy.

Furthermore, this marginalization is also damaging the economy: the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the resulting surge in raw material prices (energy and otherwise) threaten to prove more costly in our latitudes than elsewhere.

When the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke of “renewed hope for the Iranian people” and urged Tehran, the attacked country, to “cease its reckless and indiscriminate attacks against its neighbors and sovereign countries,” calling for “a credible transition for Iran,” meaning regime change.

Even in the days that followed, the EU executive leader failed to mention the violation of international law committed by the United States and the Jewish state. You don’t have to be a pro-Putinist to notice the double standards applied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This renewed perception of double standards not only weakens Europe’s position on Russia’s war against Ukraine, but also further marginalizes it as an unscrupulous actor. European leaders will once again be seen as incapable of implementing the liberal principles of international law and order they consistently advocate.

Despite the coldness of the majority of member states, the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy, Kaja Kallas, has shown herself willing to find a way to accommodate Trump’s request to form an armed coalition in the Strait of Hormuz.

After the Iranian attack on the British air base in Cyprus, several European governments—the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Greece—sent naval vessels or fighter jets to the conflict zone. All, however, have forcefully emphasized their refusal to go to war.

Among the heads of state and government, Spain’s Pedro Sánchez is the one who has stood out most in condemning the Israeli-American operation.

After Sánchez, French President Emmanuel Macron—perhaps worried about losing his position as the leader of the European anti-Trump front—also acknowledged that the attacks against Iran were conducted outside of international law. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni subsequently admitted the same.

France is undoubtedly the most militarily committed. In an increasingly militarized Europe, the French want to be first in line, and possibly command the others.

In Europe, there are too many ideological differences between individual countries and leaders. Looking at the EU as a whole, a lack of initiative and an inability to clearly identify their own interests and translate them into concrete actions and positions stand out.

Regarding the Iranian question, Europeans would certainly have preferred a diplomatic solution, even along the lines indicated by the Gulf Arab countries: Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia first and foremost. But they found themselves in a position where it was impossible to reconcile their interests with US policy and Iran’s opposition. Until, at a certain point, Israel forced their hand.

Europe’s disorientation and weakness in the face of the rapidly changing world is nothing new in recent months. But now, a terrifying economic outlook is added to this.

The Gulf crisis has caused oil and gas prices to soar, exposing Europe, an energy-importing continent, to enormous risks. According to estimates by the think tank Transport & Environment, if black gold were to remain stable, at $100 a barrel, EU motorists would find themselves paying €55 billion more for gasoline and diesel in a year. And the volatility of energy prices, as the ECB has also predicted, could trigger a new wave of inflation. This, in turn, could slow GDP growth.

This is the price we must bear for the crisis in our diplomacy. In the conflict raging in the Middle East, Europeans are not just spectators but also they suffer the economic consequences resulting from the war.

By Domenico Greco