Alternative for Germany has secured a historic victory in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, more than doubling its previous share of the vote and dealing a severe blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union.

Exit polling from German broadcaster ARD put the AfD on approximately 44.4 percent of the vote on Sunday, compared with 20.8 percent at the previous state election in 2021. The CDU, which has governed Saxony-Anhalt for more than two decades, was projected at just over 18 percent, down from 37.1 percent five years ago.

The scale of the result makes it the AfD’s strongest performance in a German state election and establishes it as the dominant political force in Saxony-Anhalt. As counting continued on Sunday night, the key question was whether the party would obtain enough seats to command an absolute majority in the state parliament, allowing it to govern without coalition partners.

Official results were still being counted late on Sunday. At 8:51 p.m. local time, results had been reported from 2,095 of the state’s 2,660 electoral districts, according to Saxony-Anhalt’s election authority. A complete preliminary result was expected during the night or early on Monday morning.

“We have made history in this country,” AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund said as the scale of the victory became apparent. The 35-year-old has presented the Saxony-Anhalt campaign as more than a regional contest, describing success in the state as part of the party’s path towards national power ahead of Germany’s next federal election, scheduled for 2029.

The result represents a dramatic reversal of the 2021 election, when the CDU comfortably finished first and the AfD was a distant second. It also places enormous pressure on Germany’s established parties, which have maintained a longstanding policy of refusing to enter governing coalitions with the AfD.

That policy, commonly referred to in German politics as the “firewall”, may now face its most difficult test. If the AfD falls short of an absolute parliamentary majority, the other parties could theoretically attempt to construct a government that excludes it. But the mathematics are complicated by ideological divisions between those parties and by the collapse in support for the CDU.

The Social Democrats and Greens were projected to clear the 5 percent threshold required to enter the state parliament, while Die Linke was also expected to retain representation. The performance of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, known as BSW, remained particularly important to the possible coalition arithmetic.

The AfD has campaigned in Saxony-Anhalt on strict immigration controls, increased deportations, changes to education and cultural policy, opposition to further wind farm construction and major reforms to public broadcasting. The party also advocates improving relations with Russia and has been strongly critical of Berlin’s current foreign policy approach.

On cultural issues, its state programme proposes placing a greater emphasis on German national identity in schools and public institutions. Among the measures reported during the campaign are daily displays of the German flag at schools, greater use of the national anthem at school events and restrictions on rainbow flags in educational institutions.

The election also exposed the depth of dissatisfaction with Germany’s federal government. Polling indicated that 87 percent of voters in Saxony-Anhalt were unhappy with the federal government. The CDU appears to have paid a particularly heavy price, with voters who abandoned the party saying it had failed to fulfil its promises.

For Chancellor Merz, the defeat is therefore more than a regional setback. The CDU’s fall from 37.1 percent in 2021 to around 18 percent represents a dramatic loss of support in a state where the party has governed since 2002. Senior CDU figures quickly rejected suggestions that the result threatened Merz’s position, but the vote will intensify debate about whether his government has responded effectively to concerns over migration, economic stagnation, energy policy and public services.

Germany’s sluggish economy has become an increasingly important political issue, particularly in eastern states where differences in wages, wealth and demographic trends compared with western Germany remain politically sensitive.

Merz had warned before the election that an AfD victory could discourage international investment in Saxony-Anhalt, arguing that multinational companies might hesitate to establish operations in a state governed by the party. The AfD has rejected such warnings and says established parties have used economic and political fears to discourage voters from supporting it.

The significance of Sunday’s result also extends beyond Saxony-Anhalt, a state of just over two million inhabitants.

The AfD has traditionally performed most strongly in eastern Germany, but its support has increasingly spread beyond its regional strongholds. Earlier in 2026, the party secured roughly one fifth of the vote in the western states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. A recent INSA national poll cited by Reuters placed the party at 28 percent, ahead of the conservatives on 20 percent. That broader rise makes Saxony-Anhalt an important test case.

Until now, strong AfD election results have generally resulted in other parties combining to prevent it from entering government. A vote approaching 45 percent makes that strategy considerably more difficult. Even if rival parties succeed in constructing another government, they would be doing so while the largest party in the state parliament remained outside power.

If the AfD ultimately wins an absolute majority of seats, it would give the party direct control of a German state government and provide an opportunity to implement parts of its programme in areas where state governments hold substantial authority, including education, policing, culture and public administration.

For the AfD, Saxony-Anhalt is already being presented as proof that political isolation has failed to contain its growth. For Germany’s traditional parties, the election poses a more difficult question: whether maintaining the firewall remains electorally and mathematically sustainable as the AfD’s share of the vote continues to increase.

Whatever government eventually emerges in Magdeburg, the election of September 6 has altered Germany’s political landscape. A party founded only in 2013 has moved from protest politics to receiving close to half of the vote in a German state.

The immediate battle will be over who governs Saxony-Anhalt. The larger battle will be over whether what happened there remains an eastern German phenomenon, or becomes a preview of the country’s national politics ahead of 2029.

By I. Constantin