What we are seeing today is not the first civil war the country has faced. Sudan was embroiled in a long civil war that began in 1983 and lasted for more than two decades. The conflict was primarily fought between the northern, predominantly Muslim government and southern, largely Christian and animist rebels. The war claimed the lives of an estimated 2 million people and displaced millions more. On June 30th, 1989, Colonel Omar al-Bashir led a bloodless military coup in Sudan that suspended political parties and introduced an Islamic legal code on the national level. Later, al-Bashir carried out purges and executions in the upper ranks of the army, banned associations, political parties, and independent newspapers, and imprisoned leading political figures and journalists. On October 16th, 1993, al-Bashir appointed himself “President” and disbanded the Revolutionary Command Council. The executive and legislative powers of the council were taken by al-Bashir.

During the 1996 general election, al-Bashir was the only candidate by law to run for election, making Sudan a one-party state under the National Congress Party (NCP). Hassan al-Turabi, the Speaker of the National Assembly at the time, reached out to Islamic fundamentalist groups and invited Osama bin Laden to the country. The United States subsequently listed Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Under the regime of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s legal system was based on Islamic Sharia law, and punishments such as stoning, flogging, and crucifixion were legal. Between 2009 and 2012, several women were sentenced to death by stoning, and Sudan’s public order law allowed police officers to publicly whip women who were accused of public indecency. In 2002, 88 people were sentenced to death for crimes relating to murder, armed robbery, and participating in ethnic clashes.

However, following the ouster of al-Bashir, the interim constitution signed in August 2019 contained no mention of Sharia law. In July 2020, Sudan abolished the apostasy law, public flogging, and alcohol ban for non-Muslims. An accord was also signed between the transitional government and rebel group leadership in September 2020, in which the government agreed to officially separate the state and religion, ending three decades of rule under Islamic law. The agreement also stated that no official state religion will be established in Sudan.

What’s causing the current conflict

In mid-April, clashes erupted in Sudan between the two main factions of the military regime, which appears to be a power struggle.

After Bashir’s fall, a power-sharing deal with civilian protesters was supposed to bring about a transition towards a democratic government. However, a coup in October 2021 interrupted the plan, putting the army back in charge. The coup faced renewed isolation, weekly protests, and deepening economic woes. Hemedti, who has enormous wealth derived from the export of gold from illegal mines, swung behind the plan for a new transition, bringing tensions with Burhan to the surface.

Tensions between the factions had risen in the weeks leading up to the clashes in mid-April. As an internationally-brokered plan for a transition to civilian rule was being discussed in Sudan, power struggles grew between the country’s army commander and de facto national leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo. Daglo is the head of the heavily-armed paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Rapid Strike Force, which were formed from the Janjaweed militia.

The conflict between the two factions erupted into intensely violent open battles in the streets of Khartoum on April 15, 2023, involving troops, tanks, and planes. By the third day of fighting, the United Nations reported that 400 people had been killed and at least 3,500 injured. Among the dead were three workers from the World Food Program, prompting the organization to suspend its work in Sudan despite ongoing hunger affecting much of the country. U.N. secretary-general António Guterres demanded immediate “justice” for the killings and called for an end to the conflict.

In an effort to mediate a ceasefire, African Union and Saudi diplomats headed to Sudan. A brief ceasefire of three to four hours was declared to allow the evacuation of the wounded, but the fighting continued, with both sides claiming to have captured key sites throughout the capital city.

The Sudanese armed forces, led by Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, are mainly loyal to the de facto ruler of the country. Meanwhile, the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which are a collection of militias, follow the former warlord Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. The power struggle has its roots in the years preceding the 2019 uprising that ousted the dictator Omar al-Bashir. Bashir had deliberately created formidable security forces, which he set against one another, to maintain his grip on power.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is a paramilitary group in Sudan that was originally founded by Omar al-Bashir to quell the rebellion in Darfur over 20 years ago. The rebellion was a result of political and economic marginalization of the local population by the central government. The RSF was also known as the Janjaweed, which became associated with widespread atrocities. In 2013, Bashir transformed the Janjaweed into a semi-organized paramilitary force, gave their leaders military ranks, and deployed them to crush a rebellion in South Darfur. He later sent many of them to fight in the wars in Yemen and Libya.

In 2019, the RSF, led by Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, and the regular military forces under Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan cooperated to oust Bashir. However, the RSF then dispersed a peaceful sit-in that was being held in front of the military headquarters in Khartoum, killing hundreds of people and raping dozens more.

Hemedti has tens of thousands of battle-hardened veterans under his command and has long been dissatisfied with his official deputy position on Sudan’s ruling council. The situation in Sudan remains unstable, and continued efforts are needed to address the underlying issues and promote peace and stability in the country.

What’s at stake in the region?

Sudan is located in a volatile region that borders the Red Sea, the Sahel region, and the Horn of Africa. Its strategic location and agricultural wealth have made it a target for regional power plays, making the chances of a successful transition to civilian-led government more complicated.

Sudan’s neighbors, including Ethiopia, Chad, and South Sudan, have been affected by political upheavals and conflict. The relationship between Sudan and Ethiopia has been particularly strained due to issues such as disputed farmland along their border. As a result of recent fighting, Sudanese refugees have fled to neighboring countries, including thousands who have crossed into Chad.

There are also major geopolitical dimensions at play, with various powers, including Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, vying for influence in Sudan. The Saudis and the UAE see Sudan’s transition as an opportunity to push back against Islamist influence in the region. They, along with the US and Britain, form the “Quad” and have sponsored mediation in Sudan, along with the UN and the African Union.

Western powers are concerned about the potential for a Russian military base on the Red Sea, to which Sudanese military leaders have expressed openness. This has raised concerns about increased Russian influence in the region, which could further destabilize the area.

Evacuations underway

Millions have been left stranded after fighting on April 15. On Thursday night, a fifth cease-fire was announced, intended to last for three days, but like the others, it was immediately violated. The airfield is secured by foreign troops and has been used to evacuate citizens from more than 41 nations so far, including France, Germany and Britain.

Conditions at the borders are dire, as thousands of people wait days in the desert, trying to flee through undermanned border crossings into Egypt or cram onto boats sent by Saudi Arabia to ferry people to Jiddah. At least two people have died at the Egyptian border crossing of Argeen, and others have needed intravenous fluids or CPR, witnesses have said.

Despite a number of nations evacuating their citizens, the US government had maintained for more than a week that the conditions were not conducive to a civilian evacuation. All US government personnel were evacuated in a military operation last weekend. The State Department has helped some U.S. citizens in Sudan “move overland to a location where they can more easily exit the country,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said Friday.

But many Americans — excluding embassy personnel — have had to make their own way out of the country. Several hundred U.S. citizens have left Sudan by land, sea or air since the fighting began. Before news of the American convoy finally evacuating US citizens on Saturday, Deana Welker, an American teacher who recently evacuated Sudan with the help of the French Embassy, told CNN that she was disappointed in the US government.

“I can’t even express how disappointing it was that it was another country’s military and embassy who got us out and we were just lucky enough to be a part of that group, to have heard about it and gotten there in time,” Welker said. “I mean if we hadn’t, who knows? It bothers me because they say, ‘Oh it’s too dangerous, we can’t get there,’ but all these other countries are getting there and getting their people out? So I don’t understand that.”

Current state of Sudan

The conflict in Sudan has the potential to escalate into a prolonged civil war, according to Mohanad Hashim, a Sudanese journalist for the BBC. There has been agitation from those loyal to former ruler Omar al-Bashir and his National Congress Party, which hold an Islamist ideology. If militias take sides, the conflict could become even more dangerous, potentially widening the scope and making it more difficult to resolve. The potential for an ethnic element has many observers worried, as both generals have sought to use ethnic divisions to their advantage.

Despite diplomatic efforts to extend the ceasefire and start peace talks, it seems unlikely that the two generals will agree to do so without significant external pressure from regional allies such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Without such pressure, a full cessation of hostilities is difficult to imagine, according to analysts.

The conflict in Sudan is about power, control, and wealth, with both sides increasingly seeing it as existential. It is the people of Sudan who will pay the heavy price for the ambitions of two men, highlighting the difficulties in transitioning to something better in a country trapped in cycles of corruption and violence.

Many African countries are caught in cycles of corruption and violence, and transitioning to something better is incredibly challenging. Sudan serves as a salutary lesson for the world, demonstrating the heavy toll that such conflicts can take on a country and its people.

By Ioana Constantin