In this spirit, France would plead in favor of opening accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova at the end of 2023, as requested by the two countries, which have been official candidates for barely a year. Macron justifies this reversal with a “geopolitical” concern, noting that Ukraine and Moldova are defending European values in the face of threats from Vladimir Putin’s Russia. And they must be integrated into Europe, like the Western Balkans, to escape Russian and/or Chinese interference. Thus, the French president is no longer reluctant to talk about a Union with 35 members without insisting on reforming its functioning. The Elysée Palace intends to make proposals in this direction by October, hoping to avoid being accused of delaying manoeuvres as Paris now wants to “accelerate” the expansion. The second, more subtle but no less important change concerns the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO, which France is now considering as a means of encouraging Russian and Ukrainian enemies to negotiate at some point. “We are raising the prospect of joining NATO to encourage the Russians and Ukrainians to sit down at the negotiating table,” a diplomatic source said. The Atlantic Alliance opened the door for Kyiv to join in 2008, during the summit in Bucharest. But Nicolas Sarkozy’s France and Angela Merkel’s Germany then vetoed the rapid expansion, despite US advice at the time. Shortly before the start of the war, Emmanuel Macron again suggested, during his trip to Moscow and Kiev on February 7 and 8, 2022, a form of “Finlandization” of Ukraine, a status of neutrality that would manage Russia. Meanwhile, in the wake of Russian aggression, Finland itself abandoned neutrality and rushed to join the Alliance. After sixteen months of war, the dynamic has changed. The United States opposes NATO expansion with Ukraine, but France is prepared to do so, at least for tactical reasons, less than three weeks before the alliance’s annual summit in Vilnius on July 11 and 12. The Elysée Palace intends to “support militarily and politically” Volodymyr Zelensky at a time when the counteroffensive announced by Kiev is in its initial phase and more complicated than expected, as the Ukrainian president himself admitted. With this double change of position, Emmanuel Macron aims to restore his continental leadership, eager to offer guarantees to the countries of Central Europe, most of which demand Ukraine’s entry into the EU and NATO. “I don’t think there is a Western Europe and an Eastern Europe, an old Europe and a new Europe. It would be the perpetuation of the artificial border imposed by the Soviet Union for decades”, remarked the head of state in Bratislava. “We have lost opportunities to listen to you,” he said, a way of overcoming tensions raised in 2003 by Jacques Chirac’s outburst against eastern European leaders when he said they had “lost a good opportunity to be silent” by arguing the invasion of Iraq under the American flag, against the opinion of France and Germany. It appears that the message has been received. “This remarkable change of position comes from the realisation that if we want a united Europe, we must take into account the security of the eastern flank,” said Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian foreign minister. “What needs to be done now is to draw concrete conclusions about how we see Europe and its security architecture.” Emmanuel Macron, however, runs the risk of upsetting Germany, whose authority, like France’s, is being tested by this conflict. Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes that Ukraine should be analysed on its merits before accelerating its accession to the EU. And that it is out of the question, in the midst of war, to promise Kiev entry into NATO.

By Paul Bumman