In Asia, persistent energy supply disruptions resulting from the Middle East conflict have prompted the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to drastically reduce its growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific. These severe and prolonged disruptions are keeping energy prices high, tightening financial conditions, and weighing on economic activity across the region, the multilateral bank said. The Asian Development Bank now forecasts regional growth of 4.7% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, down from 5.1% for both years in its previous report in early April. Inflation in the region is also expected to accelerate to 5.2% in 2026, from 3% last year, before declining to 4.1% in 2027. “Our revised forecasts represent a significant downward revision to growth and a sharp increase in inflation following a special update to reflect the deepening crisis,” said ADB President Masato Kanda. In Japan, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and revised its forecasts for the Japanese economy, halving its growth forecast and sharply raising its inflation forecast. Core inflation estimates, excluding fresh food, were also significantly revised upward, now expected at 2.8% this year. Inflation in Africa is also a complex and variable phenomenon, influenced by various economic and social factors. West Africa in particular has seen significant increases in consumer prices, exceeding double digits. These increases were driven by rising energy prices on international markets, as evidenced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war between the United States and Iran. Inflation in Africa is a general concern for economists and policymakers, as it can significantly impact economies and people’s lives. It is crucial to carefully monitor data and trends to make informed, strategic decisions.

The situation in Europe is also not positive. The latest data recorded inflation at 3%. Despite this, the ECB has decided not to change interest rates for now. The ECB explained that “the new information is broadly in line with its previous assessment of the inflation outlook, but upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified,” reiterating the Governing Council’s commitment to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilizes at its medium-term objective of 2%.

The conflict in the Middle East has caused a sharp increase in energy prices, pushing up inflation and weighing on confidence. The implications of the war for medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the extent of its indirect and second-round effects. The longer the war continues and the longer energy prices remain elevated, the greater the likely impact on broader measures of inflation and the economy.

By Domenico Greco