Trump and Iran say agreement to be signed on Friday: The Deal That Could Reshape the Middle East..If It Holds!

After months of war, blockade, and diplomatic brinkmanship that brought the global economy to the edge of a prolonged energy crisis, the United States and Iran have agreed a framework deal to end hostilities. The signing is set for Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz, closed to the world since late February, will reopen. And the front page of Israel’s best-selling newspaper on Monday morning carried a single word: “Confrontation.” Not between Washington and Tehran. Between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.

The framework, brokered by Pakistan and Qatar after 17 hours of overnight negotiations in Tehran, is a memorandum of understanding that stops well short of a final peace settlement. What is known:

On Lebanon, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced an “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” Whether Israel – which was told about the deal, not consulted on it – will comply is an entirely separate question.

On the Strait of Hormuz, Trump announced on Truth Social that the waterway would reopen upon the deal’s signing Friday “for purposes of mine removal.” Iranian state media reported that the MoU calls for the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports to be lifted within 30 days. The precise mechanism and timeline remain unclear – a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral warned it could take “weeks to months” for mines to be fully cleared, with complete relief to global oil markets potentially taking up to two months.

On nuclear matters, Iranian state media reports Tehran is committing not to produce nuclear weapons, with a 60-day period ahead during which both sides must agree on what to do with Iran’s existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Crucially, the restrictions on enrichment itself, the core of every previous nuclear negotiation — remain unresolved. Vice President JD Vance said the commitment was “built into this agreement,” but the details are absent from any published text.

On sanctions, some form of relief appears to be coming, but no timelines have been confirmed, and Iran’s deputy foreign minister insisted nuclear talks would only begin once Washington releases billions in frozen assets, a position U.S. officials rejected.

The full text of the 14-point memorandum has not been published.

Inside Iran, the deal is being presented to the public as a victory, a defeat for the United States and Israel. State television framed it as a vindication of Tehran’s resistance. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the deal on state TV, reiterated Iran’s distrust of Washington, and said his country would “monitor” U.S. compliance carefully.

US Vice President JD Vance, third right, shakes hands with Army Chief and Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, left, after arriving for the US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11. 

Gharibabadi also claimed, with evident satisfaction, that Iran’s threats against Israel and the U.S. following Israeli strikes on Beirut on Sunday morning “helped the process of finalising the text and resolving some of the issues.” In other words: the missile threats worked.

The deepest fault line in this agreement is the one between Washington and Jerusalem.

Israel launched airstrikes on Dahiyeh, a southern suburb of Beirut and a Hezbollah stronghold, on the very morning the Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran to finalize the deal. Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf posted immediately on X: “If America cannot stop Israel, then talking about the process is no longer possible.”

Trump, speaking to the New York Times on Sunday night, called Netanyahu “a very difficult guy.” Israel’s front pages treated it as a rupture. For a president who built his political brand on the U.S.-Israel alliance, the language was remarkable.

Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz was unequivocal in response to the deal: the IDF intends to remain in Lebanon “without time limit,” in “security zones” in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir went further: “We are not partners to this agreement. It does not bind us in any way.” He demanded nothing less than the full dismantling of Hezbollah and warned that any strike from Lebanon would draw an immediate Israeli response on Dahiyeh.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun welcomed the deal cautiously, expressing hope it would lead to “a definitive end to the cycle of violence.” Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, aligned with Hezbollah, praised the inclusion of a clause requiring Israel to halt its attacks on Lebanon. But on the ground in southern Lebanon, returning displaced families found Israeli tanks blocking village streets. More than 3,700 people have been killed in the country since the war began. Around a million remain displaced. Dozens of villages have been destroyed. Nobody knows who will pay to rebuild them.

The Lebanese, who have lived through this before, are sceptical. The ceasefire that ended the 2024 war did not bring peace. Israel continued striking what it described as Hezbollah targets almost every day afterward. Many fear history will repeat itself once the world’s attention shifts.

Financial markets did not wait for Friday’s signing. Asian shares surged on Monday morning, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 closing up 5% and South Korea’s Kospi rising 4.8%. European markets followed, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 each gaining around 1.7%. Oil prices fell sharply, which drove energy company shares like BP and Shell down around 4%, limiting gains in London’s FTSE 100.

BBC Economics Editor Faisal Islam described the moment plainly: there is now every realistic chance of avoiding a prolonged energy shock. Petrol prices had already begun to fall. Fixed mortgage rates have started declining as global borrowing costs ease. The feared October energy price spike ahead of winter is now uncertain. Even food prices, under pressure due to expensive fertiliser costs, may stabilise sooner than feared.

The caveat is the same one attached to every line of this agreement: it depends on a fragile peace holding.

Every expert paying attention to this deal is saying the same thing, with varying degrees of diplomacy: the MoU is an opening, not a solution. The 60-day clock on nuclear negotiations  (which only begins once the framework takes effect) will be the true test of whether this is a genuine peace or a pause.

The fundamental gap has not changed. Washington demands Iran halt uranium enrichment. Tehran insists enrichment for civilian purposes is its sovereign right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. It took international negotiators years to produce the JCPOA in 2015, a deal that covered this question in exhaustive detail, and which Trump tore up in 2018. A former deputy chief of staff to U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that if Iran does not negotiate seriously on dismantling its nuclear programme, “the president is likely to start military operations again.”

Iran has heard that kind of language before. Whether the 60-day window produces a meaningful nuclear framework or a fresh impasse will determine whether June 14, 2026 is remembered as the beginning of a new Middle East or as another false dawn.

Trump announced the deal on his 80th birthday, hours before hosting a White House UFC gala. The timing will not be lost on historians. The front-page story of his presidency, a war that dragged his approval ratings down, disrupted global supply chains, killed thousands, and blockaded the world’s most critical oil shipping lanes, appears to be entering a new chapter.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for “swift and full implementation by all parties” and insisted freedom of navigation must be “toll-free.” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called it “a hugely significant moment.” Egypt described it as “a major turning point.” World leaders queued to congratulate the mediators and, secondarily, each other.

Whether the congratulations are premature is, at this moment, unknowable. The Qatari negotiators left Tehran, preparatory meetings are planned in Doha, and the signing is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.

The guns may be falling silent. The hard work – on nuclear enrichment, on Lebanon, on sanctions, on the question of what exactly Iran committed to and when – has barely begun.

By I. Constantin