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US 2020: 4 Democrats with the best chance of winning the nomination

We are now 10 months away from the election and with the recent decision by Julián Castro to no longer run for the nomination, there are still 14 Democratic candidates competing for the spot to run against Donald Trump in November.

Realistically speaking most of the candidates still in the running have little to no chance to obtain the nomination and the actual serious contender list (unless something cataclysmic were to occur) is down to 4 (or maybe 5, but more on that later)

Below are the 4 front runners:

  1. Joe Biden. The former vice president has been the leading contender in most polls since he announced he was running. He has had some ups and downs during the campaign so far, but has still kept the lead despite some of his “goofs”. For a lot of people he seems to be the “safe” candidate that they already know, that feels “presidential” and the best equipped to beat Trump. Iowa and New Hampshire are going to be first test by fire and in order to keep his status as favorite, he will need to win in both states.
  2. Bernie Sanders. Sanders has a very large online support and has been fundraising at an unmatched speed in the past months. There are certainly questions about his health and age, but he has been picking up support again in the past weeks. Sanders is probably the Democratic candidate with the most vocal “base”, but that base is possibly not large enough to guarantee a nomination.
  3. Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg is the youngest of our contenders, but that does not mean he is in any way unqualified. From education to military service, to public service as the Mayor of South Bend to his straight to the point and relatable answers at the democratic debates. He has been picking up speed throughout 2019 but he is still weak with non-white voters. He may not get the nomination in 2020, but he is most likely someone that we will be following again in future election cycles
  4. Elizabeth Warren. Her campaign has been losing steam and her fundraising appears to have slowed down to a crawl. She is definitely not yet out of the race, but her situation seems more precarious than in the middle of 2019. She can definitely still surprise in the primaries, but she is no longer a favorite.

If a 5th name had to be added to the list, it would be Amy Klobuchar. Mainly because she still has a chance of winning in Iowa, but it is unclear how that would impact her chances at obtaining the nomination  the polls overall are not in her favor to make her a really serious contender, but she seems to be the only one out of the top 4 that could still have a realistic, though very slim, chance of becoming the Democratic nominee.

There is still a month to go before the Iowa caucuses, but the names above seem to be the ones that are locked in. 

By: J. Costa

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